Predictions
Friedrich Merz Can Lose His Coalition and Still Be Chancellor
Friedrich Merz is 23.5% on Polymarket to be out as chancellor by 31 Dec, but under the Basic Law a coalition collapse alone cannot remove him. Our fair: 16%.
Hyped and surging
All marketsBitcoin85,731+6.49%Gold4,328.00-0.13%Hyperliquid94.18+3.71%Solana118.61+9.71%WTI Crudevia USO147.46-4.13%Nvidia223.63+0.61%
Trending on CoinGecko
- TRUMP+6.16%
- SUI+26.52%
- ZEC+6.11%
- NEAR+12.44%
The Spread Game
An asset, a date, a price. Guess how far it moved. Within 5 points keeps the streak alive.
0streak
0best
0/12played
Loading the tape…
On — it traded at —. Where was it — days later, on —?
Drag point B to where you think it closed
+0.0%your guess
Actual · your guess · off by pts
Run over.
Latest calls
Mover of the day
EthenaENA0.2225+11.98%30 days · 24h changeAlso moving
- Morpho2.7700+11.25%
- Dogecoin0.0937+10.39%
- Cardano0.2431+10.20%
- Solana118.61+9.71%
- AMD609.81+8.93%
Forex & CFD
Forex desk
EUR/JPY Forecast: 188.00 Bull Case vs 172.00 Bear Case
EUR/JPY forecast to 31 Dec 2026: the ECB and BoJ hiked eight days apart, the 125bp gap held and Tokyo has spent ¥27tn on yen. Base 177.50, bull 188, bear 172.
EUR/CHF Forecast: 0.9750 Bull Case vs 0.9150 Bear Case
EUR/CHF settled at 0.9462 on 18 September with the ECB at 2.50% and the SNB at zero. Our base case is 0.9550, bull 0.9750 and bear 0.9150 by 30 June 2027.
EUR/NOK Forecast: 11.50 Bull Case vs 10.30 Bear Case
Norges Bank just flipped to selling NOK 176m a day as Brent hit $130.80. Our EUR/NOK forecast: an 11.50 bull case against a 10.30 bear case to Q1 2027.
EUR/GBP Forecast: 0.8800 Bull Case vs 0.8420 Bear Case
EUR/GBP sits at 0.8587 after the ECB hiked to 2.50% and the Bank of England held 6-3. Why the two-year gilt-Schatz spread pays sterling 28bp it has not earned.
Commodities
Commodities desk
Tin Price Prediction: $62,000 Bull Case vs $46,000 Bear Case
Tin price prediction to 31 December 2026: LME cash settled $53,600 on 18 September as warehouse stock hit a 2026 low of 4,855t. Bull $62,000, bear $46,000.
- Target
- 62,000
- Invalidation
- 46,000
- Horizon
- to 31 Dec 2026
Crypto
Crypto desk
Optimism (OP) Rose From $0.096 to $0.126 After Upgrade 20 Passed
Optimism (OP) rose 32% after Upgrade 20 passed with 0.13% against, yet ARB, with no upgrade, rose 27%. Base's exit and a quiet buyback ledger set the real test.
Stocks
Stocks deskNvidiaNVDA223.63+0.61%TeslaTSLA377.37+3.60%AppleAAPL337.27+0.34%PalantirPLTR182.08+2.50%StrategyMSTR166.00+7.85%CoinbaseCOIN205.51+5.80%AMDAMD609.81+8.93%RobinhoodHOOD124.05+3.53%
Micron (MU) Price Prediction: $1,420 Bull Case vs $640 Bear Case
Micron's revenue rose 346% on a 10.5% rise in cost of goods, and its biggest contracts now carry a price ceiling. Bull case $1,420, bear case $640 by 2027.
Prediction Markets
All callsBroker reviews
All reviews
FxPro
FxPro review 2026: the FCA-licensed UK arm files as principal and market maker while the site sells NDD execution; cTrader commission is $4.01 a lot per side.
AvaTrade
AvaTrade charges $50 for every three idle months plus a separate $100 annual administration fee, and its own public cost table showed no prices at all.
Spreadex
Spreadex Review 2026: the St Albans firm runs sports and financial spread betting on one FCA licence, quotes 1.4 on Germany 40 and discloses no revenue split.
Dukascopy
Dukascopy Review 2026: the Swiss bank quotes USD 35 per million per side but charges it in euros, so one EUR/USD lot costs USD 8.04 round turn, not USD 7.00.
Interactive Brokers
Interactive Brokers review 2026: its $2.00 FX minimum makes a 0.1-lot EUR/USD trade cost 5.7x Pepperstone Razor. Stock fees, cash interest, licences checked.
Trade Nation
Trade Nation is the only fixed-spread broker of scale. Its EUR/USD spread is 0.5 pips in the London session, cheaper than every raw-plus-commission floor on this desk, and 5.0 pips for one hour at 22:00 UK.
