Predictions
Israel Next PM Odds: Eisenkot 48.9% vs Our 43% Fair Value
Israel next PM odds: Polymarket has Gadi Eisenkot at 48.9% before the 27 October Knesset election. Our seat-and-coalition model puts fair value at 43%.
Hyped and surging
All marketsBitcoin80,923+4.22%Gold4,328.00-0.13%Hyperliquid87.14+6.06%Solana103.86+3.43%WTI Crudevia USO142.09+0.67%Nvidia228.45+1.80%
Trending on CoinGecko
- PONS+41.60%
- SHRUB+118.12%
- UNI+10.56%
- PENGU+3.26%
The Spread Game
An asset, a date, a price. Guess how far it moved. Within 5 points keeps the streak alive.
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Drag point B to where you think it closed
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Latest calls
Mover of the day
StrategyMSTR144.82+17.56%30 days · 24h changeAlso moving
- Robinhood124.72+16.57%
- Coinbase192.70+10.14%
- Ethena0.1661+10.12%
- Cardano0.2246+9.74%
- Palantir182.53+7.71%
Forex & CFD
Forex desk
EUR/USD Forecast: 1.2050 Bull Case vs 1.1250 Bear Case
EUR/USD holds 1.1578 with the two-year US-euro spread at 151bp and carry costing a euro long 167 pips a year. Bull case 1.2050, bear case 1.1250, base 1.1500.
USD/CHF Forecast: 0.8620 Bull Case vs 0.7650 Bear Case
The dollar buys 0.81396 francs while Swiss overnight money pays below zero and the Fed pays 3.63%. Where USD/CHF goes next, and the level that breaks the case.
USD/CAD Forecast: 1.4250 Bull Case vs 1.3350 Bear Case
USD/CAD trades at 1.3886 with the Fed 137.5bp above the Bank of Canada. Our bull case is 1.4250, the bear 1.3350, and why the 1.33-1.38 consensus is wrong.
EUR/HUF Forecast: 380 Bull Case vs 350 Bear Case for 2026
EUR/HUF trades at 364.79 after the MNB cut to 5.50%. Why 100bp of 2026 easing cost the forint just 10bp of real carry, and what takes it to 380 or 350.
Commodities
Commodities desk
WTI Crude Climbs 21% to $91 as US Strikes on Iran Resume
WTI crude climbed 21% to $91.01 as US strikes on Iran resumed. Cushing holds 22.5m barrels, refiners run at 98%, and Dec 2027 sits $19 under the front.
Crypto
Crypto desk
Bitcoin BTC Price Prediction: $96,000 Bull vs $62,000 Bear
Bitcoin trades at $77,768, up 22% in 30 days but down 30% on the year. The drawdown arithmetic behind a $96,000 bull case and a $62,000 bear case for BTC.
Stocks
Stocks deskNvidiaNVDA228.45+1.80%TeslaTSLA376.37+5.42%AppleAAPL328.21+1.00%PalantirPLTR182.53+7.71%StrategyMSTR144.82+17.56%CoinbaseCOIN192.70+10.14%AMDAMD456.16-0.20%RobinhoodHOOD124.72+16.57%
AMD Falls 11.9% in a Month as Margin Guidance Stays at 56%
AMD closed at $457.06 on 2 September 2026, down 11.9% in a month after the chipmaker guided Q3 gross margin flat at 56% and sold $4.75bn of senior notes.
Prediction Markets
All callsWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Israel Next PM Odds: Eisenkot 48.9% vs Our 43% Fair Value
Market30%
Our fair43%
Market vs fairBelow fair
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Democratic Nominee 2028: AOC at 20% on a Thin Order Book
Market14%
Our fair14%
Market vs fairAbove fair
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Strait of Hormuz Odds at 28.5% With Transits at 5 a Day
Market28%
Our fair13%
Market vs fairAbove fair
Broker reviews
All reviews
Eightcap
Eightcap review 2026: the CySEC entity's own disclosure prices a €10,000 trade at €75, Raw commission runs $6.07 to $7.00 by base currency, swaps unpublished.
HFM
HFM review 2026: the FCA-registered UK company employs one person and books only intercompany fees, hfm.com is absent from the CySEC approved-domain list, and the 2016 EUR 105,000 fine reads differently in the regulator's own text.
Capital.com
Capital.com charges no commission and no inactivity fee, yet a long gold CFD burns 5.81% of notional a year in overnight funding: 116% of the margin posted.
ActivTrades
ActivTrades review 2026: EUR/USD quoted a median 0.8 pips against its 0.5 target, and 8 of 15 majors never hit the floor. Costs, entities, FCA record.
Swissquote
Swissquote review 2026: the FINMA-licensed Swiss bank charges 1.7 pips on EUR/USD. We price that banking premium against Saxo, Fusion Markets and IC Markets.
Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets review 2026: the ASIC broker shares one legal entity and AFSL with Global Prime, and its $4.50 raw commission is really eight numbers, not one.
