Predictions
Democratic Nominee 2028: AOC at 20% on a Thin Order Book
Polymarket's Democratic Nominee 2028 market has traded $1.27bn, yet 93.5% of its resting depth sits in legs priced under 1%. What the top of the board is really worth.
Hyped and surging
All marketsBitcoin77,559+0.22%Gold4,328.00-0.13%Hyperliquid82.20-0.79%Solana100.23+0.34%WTI Crudevia USO141.15+0.11%Nvidia224.41+3.21%
Trending on CoinGecko
- PONS+17.40%
- AI+8.42%
- INDEX+89.02%
- AKE+55.39%
The Spread Game
An asset, a date, a price. Guess how far it moved. Within 5 points keeps the streak alive.
0streak
0best
0/12played
Loading the tape…
On — it traded at —. Where was it — days later, on —?
Drag point B to where you think it closed
+0.0%your guess
Actual · your guess · off by pts
Run over.
Latest calls
Mover of the day
PalantirPLTR169.46-5.81%30 days · 24h changeAlso moving
- Ethena0.1504-4.80%
- Morpho2.5200-4.42%
- Cardano0.2044+3.94%
- Robinhood106.99+3.36%
- Aave126.84-3.33%
Forex & CFD
Forex desk
USD/CHF Forecast: 0.8620 Bull Case vs 0.7650 Bear Case
The dollar buys 0.81396 francs while Swiss overnight money pays below zero and the Fed pays 3.63%. Where USD/CHF goes next, and the level that breaks the case.
USD/CAD Forecast: 1.4250 Bull Case vs 1.3350 Bear Case
USD/CAD trades at 1.3886 with the Fed 137.5bp above the Bank of Canada. Our bull case is 1.4250, the bear 1.3350, and why the 1.33-1.38 consensus is wrong.
EUR/HUF Forecast: 380 Bull Case vs 350 Bear Case for 2026
EUR/HUF trades at 364.79 after the MNB cut to 5.50%. Why 100bp of 2026 easing cost the forint just 10bp of real carry, and what takes it to 380 or 350.
GBP/USD Forecast: 1.4050 Bull Case vs 1.3050 Bear Case
GBP/USD is pinned at 1.3583 with volatility at a 12-month low as the Fed, the Bank of England and a new Chancellor's first Budget all land inside nine weeks.
Commodities
Commodities desk
Platinum Price Prediction: $2,400 Bull vs $1,380 Bear Case
Platinum spot is $1,764/oz. WPIC forecasts a 297koz 2026 deficit, but strip out investment flows and the physical market runs a 222koz surplus. Bull $2,400, bear $1,380.
- Target
- 2,400.00
- Invalidation
- 1,380.00
- Horizon
- 6-12 months
Crypto
Crypto desk
XRP Price Prediction: $2.05 Bull Case vs $0.98 Bear Case
Ripple paid the full $125,035,150 penalty and the injunction still stands, yet XRP is 52% below last year. The escrow, ETF and on-ledger numbers behind $2.05 and $0.98.
Stocks
Stocks deskNvidiaNVDA224.41+3.21%TeslaTSLA357.01+0.26%AppleAAPL324.96-0.05%PalantirPLTR169.46-5.81%StrategyMSTR123.19-1.35%CoinbaseCOIN174.96-1.05%AMDAMD457.06-0.55%RobinhoodHOOD106.99+3.36%
Palantir (PLTR) Drops 7% Intraday as Software Sells Off
Palantir shed about $33.2 billion of market value in a session with no company news behind it. The software complex was down across the board while chipmakers rose, and MongoDB's beat-and-raise had just been punished with a 12% fall.
Prediction Markets
All callsWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Democratic Nominee 2028: AOC at 20% on a Thin Order Book
Market14%
Our fair14%
Market vs fairAbove fair
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Strait of Hormuz Odds at 28.5% With Transits at 5 a Day
Market27%
Our fair13%
Market vs fairAbove fair
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Anthropic at 60% to Be 2026's Biggest IPO Has No S-1 on File
Market39%
Our fair14%
Market vs fairAbove fair
Broker reviews
All reviews
HFM
HFM review 2026: the FCA-registered UK company employs one person and books only intercompany fees, hfm.com is absent from the CySEC approved-domain list, and the 2016 EUR 105,000 fine reads differently in the regulator's own text.
Capital.com
Capital.com charges no commission and no inactivity fee, yet a long gold CFD burns 5.81% of notional a year in overnight funding: 116% of the margin posted.
ActivTrades
ActivTrades review 2026: EUR/USD quoted a median 0.8 pips against its 0.5 target, and 8 of 15 majors never hit the floor. Costs, entities, FCA record.
Swissquote
Swissquote review 2026: the FINMA-licensed Swiss bank charges 1.7 pips on EUR/USD. We price that banking premium against Saxo, Fusion Markets and IC Markets.
Fusion Markets
Fusion Markets review 2026: the ASIC broker shares one legal entity and AFSL with Global Prime, and its $4.50 raw commission is really eight numbers, not one.
FP Markets
FP Markets review 2026: the ASIC broker's Raw commission swings 98% on base currency alone, from US$3.76 to US$7.45 round turn. Costs, Iress fees, verdict.
