Brent Crude Price Prediction: $125 Bull Case vs $80 Bear Case
Brent crude price prediction to 31 Dec 2026: the futures curve already prices a $16 roll-down to $91.52. Our $96 base, $125 bull and $80 bear cases, explained.
Commodities
Gold, oil, gas and the metals complex — supply, demand and the trades the physical market is telegraphing.
Aluminium Rose 12.9% in 2026 as LME Stocks Halved to 244,525t
Aluminium settled at $3,352 a tonne on the LME on 9 September 2026, up 12.9% year to date, as exchange stocks halved to 244,525 tonnes after Gulf outages.
Cocoa Falls 12.4% to $5,927 as Ivory Coast Arrivals Rise 19%
ICE December cocoa lost 12.4% in four sessions to settle at $5,927 on 8 September. Ivory Coast port arrivals are running 19% ahead, certified warehouse stocks are the fullest in two years, and the crop that was due to open on 1 September may be ten weeks late.
Wheat Rose 43% in a Year as Novorossiysk Faces 4-Month Repairs
CBOT front-month wheat settled at 716.00 cents a bushel on 4 September 2026, up 42.9% from a year earlier, after a 12 August strike halted Novorossiysk's three grain terminals and the USDA raised world ending stocks anyway.
Diesel Price Prediction: $5.35 Bull Case vs $3.60 Bear Case
The distillate crack is at $106.93 and US refiners are running at 98% while making proportionally less diesel. Where NY Harbor ULSD goes next.
Coffee Falls 13.5% as StoneX Lifts Brazil to 77.2 Million Bags
StoneX put Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop at a record 77.2 million bags on 2 September. Two days earlier, ICE certified Arabica stocks hit their lowest level since 1999. Both are true, and they point in opposite directions.
Palladium Climbs 4.9% to $1,441 as Montana Miners Walk Out
Palladium rose 4.92% to $1,441 an ounce the morning 420 steelworkers walked out of Montana's Stillwater East. Not one market wrap that day named the strike.
WTI Crude Climbs 21% to $91 as US Strikes on Iran Resume
WTI crude climbed 21% to $91.01 as US strikes on Iran resumed. Cushing holds 22.5m barrels, refiners run at 98%, and Dec 2027 sits $19 under the front.
Platinum Price Prediction: $2,400 Bull vs $1,380 Bear Case
Platinum spot is $1,764/oz. WPIC forecasts a 297koz 2026 deficit, but strip out investment flows and the physical market runs a 222koz surplus. Bull $2,400, bear $1,380.
Natural Gas Price Prediction: $4.20 Bull vs $2.10 Bear Case
Natural Gas trades at $2.938/MMBtu, but EIA needs 80 Bcf a week to hit its record October storage forecast. Our bull case is $4.20, our bear case $2.10.
Lithium Carbonate Hits 161,000 Yuan as CATL Restart Stalls
Lithium carbonate closed at 161,000 yuan a tonne on GFEX as CATL's Jianxiawo mine stayed shut, while Western lithium equities ran far ahead of the curve.
Uranium Price Prediction: $118 Bull Case vs $68 Bear Case
Uranium spot is $89.72/lb but the term price prints $95.50 and has not fallen once in 2026. Our year-end call: $96 base, $118 bull, $68 bear, and the trigger.
Gold Price Prediction: $5,050 Bull Case vs $3,960 Bear
Gold price prediction to end-2026: spot $4,456 sits 1.4% under its 200-day after a 10% August, yet miners ran 34%. Bull $5,050, base $4,640, bear $3,960.
Copper Price Prediction: $7.50 Bull Case vs $5.60 Bear Case
Copper trades at $6.59/lb after August's record high. Our bull case is $7.50 and bear $5.60, with the US tariff ruling and thin LME stocks the swing factors.
Silver Climbs 16% to $69.57 as the Gold Ratio Hits 66
Silver climbed 16% in a month to $69.57 an ounce, but is down 8.8% over 90 days. The gold-to-silver ratio at 66.3 explains the move better than the deficit.