Canola Price Prediction: C$860 Bull Case vs C$720 Bear
Canola closed at C$811.30 a tonne on 1 October, 29.6% above December. The bull case is C$860 and the bear case is C$720 into the 13 November ICE expiry.
Commodities
Gold, oil, gas and the metals complex — supply, demand and the trades the physical market is telegraphing.
Palm Oil Fell 6.6% to 4,610 Ringgit in Late September
Palm oil fell 6.6% to 4,610 ringgit between 17 and 30 September on the MPOC Bursa settlement, a late-month break that left December near its July low.
TTF Gas Price Prediction: €92 Bull Case vs €46 Bear
Dutch TTF gas price prediction for winter 2026-27: October settled at €69.81. Bull case €92, bear case €46, and a forward curve that prices a single season.
Lead Price Prediction: $2,100 Bull Case vs $1,720 Bear Case
Lead price prediction to March 2027: LME cash settled $1,886 on 28 September as stocks fell 21.4% from July's peak. Bull case $2,100, bear case $1,720.
Propane Rose 19.5% in a Month as US Stocks Fell From a Record
Mont Belvieu propane rose 19.5% in a month to $0.864/gal as US stocks slipped from a record 110.5m barrels and exports hit 2.47m b/d. EIA data, what it changes.
Brazil Sees 10% Fewer Oranges Yet Orange Juice Futures Fell 37.5%
Orange juice futures fell 37.5% between 25 September 2025 and 25 September 2026, while Fundecitrus sees a 10.2% smaller Brazil crop. Stocks explain the gap.
US Gulf Coast Jet Fuel Rose 112.7% in the Year to 22 September
US Gulf Coast jet fuel spot rose 112.7% to $4.354 a gallon in the year to 22 September 2026, even though US jet fuel stocks sat 1.1% above a year earlier.
US Gasoline Rose to $4.478 as Midwest Refinery Runs Fell to 89%
US gasoline rose 15.9 cents to $4.478 a gallon in the week to 21 Sep as Midwest refinery runs fell to 89% after the Joliet outage and Midwest pumps rose 29.5c.
Cotton Price Prediction: 95-Cent Bull Case vs 72-Cent Bear Case
Cotton price prediction: ICE December settled at 82.87 cents on 22 Sep after USDA cut the US crop 3%. Our bull case is 95 cents and the bear case is 72 cents.
Oats Rose to $4.16 After StatCan Saw Canada's Crop Shrink 22.7%
CBOT oats rose 6.5% to $4.16 a bushel after Statistics Canada put the 2026 oat crop 22.7% lower. The cut was mostly acreage, and the rain came after the model.
Live Cattle Placements Fell 9% to the Lowest August on Record
Live cattle: USDA says August feedlot placements fell 9% to 1.62 million head, a record low for August, while cash steers sit 15% below May's $262.85 peak.
Tin Price Prediction: $62,000 Bull Case vs $46,000 Bear Case
Tin price prediction to 31 December 2026: LME cash settled $53,600 on 18 September as warehouse stock hit a 2026 low of 4,855t. Bull $62,000, bear $46,000.
Corn Price Prediction: 585c Bull Case vs 445c Bear Case
Corn settled at 527.25c on 18 September with managed money net long a record 414,460 lots. Our 585c bull and 445c bear cases to the 14 December expiry.
Zinc Backwardation Fell From $217 to $79 as LME Stocks Rose
LME zinc's cash premium over three-month metal collapsed from $217 to $79 a tonne between 27 August and 17 September 2026 as warehouse stocks rebuilt 32%.
Nickel Price Prediction: $19,500 Bull Case vs $14,500 Bear Case
Nickel price prediction to March 2027: LME stock at 278,790t caps Indonesia's quota premium. $15,500 base case, $19,500 bull case and $14,500 bear case.
Iron Ore Price Prediction: $125 Bull Case vs $72 Bear Case
Iron ore sits at $97.41 a tonne and the forward curve is flat to March 2027. Why the Simandou supply wall is dated 2027, not now, and where $125 and $72 come from.
Sugar Price Prediction: 22¢ Bull Case vs 16¢ Bear Case
Sugar price prediction for ICE March 2027 at 19.06¢: funds swung to a 238,684-lot net long as Brazil's sugar mix fell to 42.5%. Our 22¢ bull and 16¢ bear case.
Pork Bellies Fell 33% in a Month, Dragging Lean Hog Cash Lower
Lean hog cash fell 12.8% from July as USDA's pork belly primal lost 33% in a month; the 12.9% weekly futures crash was a roll. Oct'26 sits $7.80 under cash.
Soybeans Fell 2.7% Friday on USDA's Record 4.53bn-Bushel Crop
Soybeans fell 2.7% to $12.97 on Friday, 11 September, after USDA put the US crop at a record 4.535bn bushels. What the WASDE, crush and China buying change.
Brent Crude Price Prediction: $125 Bull Case vs $80 Bear Case
Brent crude price prediction to 31 Dec 2026: the futures curve already prices a $16 roll-down to $91.52. Our $96 base, $125 bull and $80 bear cases, explained.
Aluminium Rose 12.9% in 2026 as LME Stocks Halved to 244,525t
Aluminium settled at $3,352 a tonne on the LME on 9 September 2026, up 12.9% year to date, as exchange stocks halved to 244,525 tonnes after Gulf outages.
Cocoa Falls 12.4% to $5,927 as Ivory Coast Arrivals Rise 19%
ICE December cocoa lost 12.4% in four sessions to settle at $5,927 on 8 September. Ivory Coast port arrivals are running 19% ahead, certified warehouse stocks are the fullest in two years, and the crop that was due to open on 1 September may be ten weeks late.
Wheat Rose 43% in a Year as Novorossiysk Faces 4-Month Repairs
CBOT front-month wheat settled at 716.00 cents a bushel on 4 September 2026, up 42.9% from a year earlier, after a 12 August strike halted Novorossiysk's three grain terminals and the USDA raised world ending stocks anyway.
Diesel Price Prediction: $5.35 Bull Case vs $3.60 Bear Case
The distillate crack is at $106.93 and US refiners are running at 98% while making proportionally less diesel. Where NY Harbor ULSD goes next.