Government shutdown by October 1?
US Government Shutdown Odds at 2.2% With 26 Days to the Deadline
Market1%
Our fair1%
Market vs fairAbove fair
Prediction Markets
What the odds actually say — Polymarket and event-market pricing versus the probabilities we can defend.
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Clarity Act Odds at 12.5% With 36 Senate Days Left in 2026
Market17%
Our fair16%
Market vs fairAbove fair
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Israel Next PM Odds: Eisenkot 48.9% vs Our 43% Fair Value
Market30%
Our fair43%
Market vs fairBelow fair
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Democratic Nominee 2028: AOC at 20% on a Thin Order Book
Market14%
Our fair14%
Market vs fairAbove fair
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Strait of Hormuz Odds at 28.5% With Transits at 5 a Day
Market26%
Our fair13%
Market vs fairAbove fair
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Anthropic at 60% to Be 2026's Biggest IPO Has No S-1 on File
Market41%
Our fair14%
Market vs fairAbove fair
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
French Presidential Election: Le Pen 33.4%, Bardella 2.5%
Market36%
Our fair30%
Market vs fairAbove fair