Oats Rose to $4.16 After StatCan Saw Canada's Crop Shrink 22.7%
CBOT oats rose 6.5% to $4.16 a bushel after Statistics Canada put the 2026 oat crop 22.7% lower. The cut was mostly acreage, and the rain came after the model.
Commodities
Gold, oil, gas and the metals complex — supply, demand and the trades the physical market is telegraphing.
Live Cattle Placements Fell 9% to the Lowest August on Record
Live cattle: USDA says August feedlot placements fell 9% to 1.62 million head, a record low for August, while cash steers sit 15% below May's $262.85 peak.
Tin Price Prediction: $62,000 Bull Case vs $46,000 Bear Case
Tin price prediction to 31 December 2026: LME cash settled $53,600 on 18 September as warehouse stock hit a 2026 low of 4,855t. Bull $62,000, bear $46,000.
Corn Price Prediction: 585c Bull Case vs 445c Bear Case
Corn settled at 527.25c on 18 September with managed money net long a record 414,460 lots. Our 585c bull and 445c bear cases to the 14 December expiry.
Zinc Backwardation Fell From $217 to $79 as LME Stocks Rose
LME zinc's cash premium over three-month metal collapsed from $217 to $79 a tonne between 27 August and 17 September 2026 as warehouse stocks rebuilt 32%.
Nickel Price Prediction: $19,500 Bull Case vs $14,500 Bear Case
Nickel price prediction to March 2027: LME stock at 278,790t caps Indonesia's quota premium. $15,500 base case, $19,500 bull case and $14,500 bear case.
Iron Ore Price Prediction: $125 Bull Case vs $72 Bear Case
Iron ore sits at $97.41 a tonne and the forward curve is flat to March 2027. Why the Simandou supply wall is dated 2027, not now, and where $125 and $72 come from.
Sugar Price Prediction: 22¢ Bull Case vs 16¢ Bear Case
Sugar price prediction for ICE March 2027 at 19.06¢: funds swung to a 238,684-lot net long as Brazil's sugar mix fell to 42.5%. Our 22¢ bull and 16¢ bear case.
Pork Bellies Fell 33% in a Month, Dragging Lean Hog Cash Lower
Lean hog cash fell 12.8% from July as USDA's pork belly primal lost 33% in a month; the 12.9% weekly futures crash was a roll. Oct'26 sits $7.80 under cash.
Soybeans Fell 2.7% Friday on USDA's Record 4.53bn-Bushel Crop
Soybeans fell 2.7% to $12.97 on Friday, 11 September, after USDA put the US crop at a record 4.535bn bushels. What the WASDE, crush and China buying change.
Brent Crude Price Prediction: $125 Bull Case vs $80 Bear Case
Brent crude price prediction to 31 Dec 2026: the futures curve already prices a $16 roll-down to $91.52. Our $96 base, $125 bull and $80 bear cases, explained.
Aluminium Rose 12.9% in 2026 as LME Stocks Halved to 244,525t
Aluminium settled at $3,352 a tonne on the LME on 9 September 2026, up 12.9% year to date, as exchange stocks halved to 244,525 tonnes after Gulf outages.
Cocoa Falls 12.4% to $5,927 as Ivory Coast Arrivals Rise 19%
ICE December cocoa lost 12.4% in four sessions to settle at $5,927 on 8 September. Ivory Coast port arrivals are running 19% ahead, certified warehouse stocks are the fullest in two years, and the crop that was due to open on 1 September may be ten weeks late.
Wheat Rose 43% in a Year as Novorossiysk Faces 4-Month Repairs
CBOT front-month wheat settled at 716.00 cents a bushel on 4 September 2026, up 42.9% from a year earlier, after a 12 August strike halted Novorossiysk's three grain terminals and the USDA raised world ending stocks anyway.
Diesel Price Prediction: $5.35 Bull Case vs $3.60 Bear Case
The distillate crack is at $106.93 and US refiners are running at 98% while making proportionally less diesel. Where NY Harbor ULSD goes next.
Coffee Falls 13.5% as StoneX Lifts Brazil to 77.2 Million Bags
StoneX put Brazil's 2026/27 coffee crop at a record 77.2 million bags on 2 September. Two days earlier, ICE certified Arabica stocks hit their lowest level since 1999. Both are true, and they point in opposite directions.
Palladium Climbs 4.9% to $1,441 as Montana Miners Walk Out
Palladium rose 4.92% to $1,441 an ounce the morning 420 steelworkers walked out of Montana's Stillwater East. Not one market wrap that day named the strike.
WTI Crude Climbs 21% to $91 as US Strikes on Iran Resume
WTI crude climbed 21% to $91.01 as US strikes on Iran resumed. Cushing holds 22.5m barrels, refiners run at 98%, and Dec 2027 sits $19 under the front.
Platinum Price Prediction: $2,400 Bull vs $1,380 Bear Case
Platinum spot is $1,764/oz. WPIC forecasts a 297koz 2026 deficit, but strip out investment flows and the physical market runs a 222koz surplus. Bull $2,400, bear $1,380.
Natural Gas Price Prediction: $4.20 Bull vs $2.10 Bear Case
Natural Gas trades at $2.938/MMBtu, but EIA needs 80 Bcf a week to hit its record October storage forecast. Our bull case is $4.20, our bear case $2.10.
Lithium Carbonate Hits 161,000 Yuan as CATL Restart Stalls
Lithium carbonate closed at 161,000 yuan a tonne on GFEX as CATL's Jianxiawo mine stayed shut, while Western lithium equities ran far ahead of the curve.
Uranium Price Prediction: $118 Bull Case vs $68 Bear Case
Uranium spot is $89.72/lb but the term price prints $95.50 and has not fallen once in 2026. Our year-end call: $96 base, $118 bull, $68 bear, and the trigger.
Gold Price Prediction: $5,050 Bull Case vs $3,960 Bear
Gold price prediction to end-2026: spot $4,456 sits 1.4% under its 200-day after a 10% August, yet miners ran 34%. Bull $5,050, base $4,640, bear $3,960.
Copper Price Prediction: $7.50 Bull Case vs $5.60 Bear Case
Copper trades at $6.59/lb after August's record high. Our bull case is $7.50 and bear $5.60, with the US tariff ruling and thin LME stocks the swing factors.