Molybdenum Price Prediction: $86,000 Bull vs $70,000 Bear
Molybdenum roasted concentrate, LME spot, closed September at $78,815 a tonne. The bull case is $86,000 by year-end; the bear case below that spot is $70,000.
Commodities
Gold, oil, gas and the metals complex — supply, demand and the trades the physical market is telegraphing.
EU Carbon Price Rises to €82.32 on the Q3 CBAM Print
EU carbon price rose to €82.32 a tonne for Q3 2026 CBAM certificates, €7.04 or 9.4% above the Q2 print of €75.28, published by the Commission on 5 October.
Antimony Price Prediction: 112,000 Yuan Bull vs 94,000 Bear
Chinese 1# antimony ingot is still quoted at 105,000 yuan a tonne. The year-end scenarios are 112,000, 102,000 and 94,000 yuan.
Rhodium Price Forecast: $11,000 Bull Case vs $7,500 Bear
Rhodium price forecast into 31 December 2026: an $11,000 bull case against a $7,500 bear case, with the $9,200 base still inside today's wide dealer spread.
Cobalt Price Forecast: $52,000 Bull vs $32,000 Bear
Cobalt price forecast: the LME spot was $38,445 a tonne on 6 October 2026. Base case $44,000 by end-2027, with a $52,000 bull case and a $32,000 bear.
API2 Coal Prediction: $150 Bull Case vs $85 Bear Case
API2 coal prints $104.75 on Yahoo's stale MTF=F field, not an Argus settlement. The 31 December base is $130, with a $150 bull case and an $85 bear case.
Heating Oil Price Prediction: $5.05 Bull Case vs $3.55 Bear
Heating oil (NY Harbor ULSD) last traded at $4.46 a gallon on 6 October 2026. Base case is $4.15 by 29 Jan 2027, against a $5.05 bull and a $3.55 bear.
Soybean Oil Price Prediction: 74c Bull vs 64c Bear
Soybean oil sits on USDA's unchanged 70-cent Decatur average. December futures last traded at 69.42 cents, with a 74c bull case and a 64c bear case today.
Lumber Price Prediction: $640 Bull Case vs $470 Bear
Lumber's November 2026 future closed at $526.50 on 2 October. The bull case is $640, the bear case is $470, and the working base into year-end is $560.
November Rough Rice Fell 0.9% to $16.36 Last Friday
Rough rice futures fell 0.9% to $16.36 per hundredweight on Friday 2 October, down 15.5 cents, while November is still 4% above its 2 September close.
Canola Price Prediction: C$860 Bull Case vs C$720 Bear
Canola closed at C$811.30 a tonne on 1 October, 29.6% above December. The bull case is C$860 and the bear case is C$720 into the 13 November ICE expiry.
Palm Oil Fell 6.6% to 4,610 Ringgit in Late September
Palm oil fell 6.6% to 4,610 ringgit between 17 and 30 September on the MPOC Bursa settlement, a late-month break that left December near its July low.
TTF Gas Price Prediction: €92 Bull Case vs €46 Bear
Dutch TTF gas price prediction for winter 2026-27: October settled at €69.81. Bull case €92, bear case €46, and a forward curve that prices a single season.
Lead Price Prediction: $2,100 Bull Case vs $1,720 Bear Case
Lead price prediction to March 2027: LME cash settled $1,886 on 28 September as stocks fell 21.4% from July's peak. Bull case $2,100, bear case $1,720.
Propane Rose 19.5% in a Month as US Stocks Fell From a Record
Mont Belvieu propane rose 19.5% in a month to $0.864/gal as US stocks slipped from a record 110.5m barrels and exports hit 2.47m b/d. EIA data, what it changes.
Brazil Sees 10% Fewer Oranges Yet Orange Juice Futures Fell 37.5%
Orange juice futures fell 37.5% between 25 September 2025 and 25 September 2026, while Fundecitrus sees a 10.2% smaller Brazil crop. Stocks explain the gap.
US Gulf Coast Jet Fuel Rose 112.7% in the Year to 22 September
US Gulf Coast jet fuel spot rose 112.7% to $4.354 a gallon in the year to 22 September 2026, even though US jet fuel stocks sat 1.1% above a year earlier.
US Gasoline Rose to $4.478 as Midwest Refinery Runs Fell to 89%
US gasoline rose 15.9 cents to $4.478 a gallon in the week to 21 Sep as Midwest refinery runs fell to 89% after the Joliet outage and Midwest pumps rose 29.5c.
Cotton Price Prediction: 95-Cent Bull Case vs 72-Cent Bear Case
Cotton price prediction: ICE December settled at 82.87 cents on 22 Sep after USDA cut the US crop 3%. Our bull case is 95 cents and the bear case is 72 cents.
Oats Rose to $4.16 After StatCan Saw Canada's Crop Shrink 22.7%
CBOT oats rose 6.5% to $4.16 a bushel after Statistics Canada put the 2026 oat crop 22.7% lower. The cut was mostly acreage, and the rain came after the model.
Live Cattle Placements Fell 9% to the Lowest August on Record
Live cattle: USDA says August feedlot placements fell 9% to 1.62 million head, a record low for August, while cash steers sit 15% below May's $262.85 peak.
Tin Price Prediction: $62,000 Bull Case vs $46,000 Bear Case
Tin price prediction to 31 December 2026: LME cash settled $53,600 on 18 September as warehouse stock hit a 2026 low of 4,855t. Bull $62,000, bear $46,000.
Corn Price Prediction: 585c Bull Case vs 445c Bear Case
Corn settled at 527.25c on 18 September with managed money net long a record 414,460 lots. Our 585c bull and 445c bear cases to the 14 December expiry.
Zinc Backwardation Fell From $217 to $79 as LME Stocks Rose
LME zinc's cash premium over three-month metal collapsed from $217 to $79 a tonne between 27 August and 17 September 2026 as warehouse stocks rebuilt 32%.