Polymarket’s gamma feed priced the Fed rate hike contract, titled “Another Fed rate hike in 2026?”, at 82.5 cents for Yes at 06:52 UTC on 10 November 2026, up 7 cents in one day. The live contract was still taking orders, with an end date of 10 December 2026. Links to Polymarket are affiliate links, from which The Traders Spread may earn a commission at no cost to you.
On the Polymarket CLOB the Yes price finished 5 November at 63.5 cents, sat at 75.5 cents late on 8 November, and reached 82.5 cents late on 9 November. Gamma was still showing 82.5 cents at 06:52 UTC the next morning.
Why the price moved
The payroll report was already in the price. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on 6 November, in a release embargoed until 0830 Eastern time, that payrolls rose by 165,000 in October and that unemployment changed little at 4.1 percent. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent to $38.00. From that evening through 14:00 UTC on 9 November, the Yes price held near 75.5 to 76.5 cents.
The gain lines up with the New York Fed’s October Survey of Consumer Expectations, released on 9 November. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.9 percent, 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent across one, three and five years. The price moved from 76.5 cents at 15:00 UTC to 79.5 cents at 16:00 UTC and closed that UTC day at 82.5 cents. October consumer prices were scheduled for 0830 Eastern time on 10 November, after this snapshot.
What counts as a hike
Read from the gamma payload on 10 November, the contract pays Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate increases from 17 September 2026 through the end of the December meeting. The rules exclude a change from the 15 to 16 September meeting and count an emergency increase dated on or after 17 September. A negative resolution waits until the Fed publishes the December decision. The named source is the Federal Reserve’s open-market page, and how a Fed decision market settles covers the documents.
The FOMC calendar, last updated 28 October 2026, lists 8 to 9 December as the last meeting of the year. The contract ends on the following day.
Where the policy rate sits
On 28 October the Committee held the target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent by a 10 to 2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a quarter-point increase. An earlier page on the December decision contract records a prior print, while the figures here come from the 10 November gamma tape.
Figure 5 of the September projection materials puts the median federal funds rate at 4.1 percent for the end of 2026. The midpoint of the current range is 3.875 percent, and a quarter-point increase would lift it to 4.125 percent.
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Session tape
| Reading | Figure |
|---|---|
| Yes | 82.5 cents |
| One-day change | +7 cents |
| One-week change | +10 cents |
| One-month change | +5 cents |
| Contract end | 10 December 2026 |
Those rows are Polymarket gamma fields outcomePrices, oneDayPriceChange, oneWeekPriceChange and oneMonthPriceChange, retrieved 10 November 2026 at 06:52 UTC.
Key facts
- Yes on the Fed rate hike contract was 82.5 cents, up 7 cents on the day, with the last trade at 83 cents. Source: Polymarket gamma, 10 November 2026, 06:52 UTC.
- Volume was $1.72 million, 24-hour volume was $121,250, and liquidity was $120,402. Source: Polymarket gamma, 10 November 2026, 06:52 UTC.
- The target range stayed at 3.75 percent to 4 percent on a 10 to 2 vote, with Cook and Hammack preferring a quarter-point rise. Source: Federal Reserve statement, 28 October 2026.
- Payroll employment rose by 165,000 in October and the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6 November 2026.
- Inflation expectations held at 3.9 percent, 3.3 percent and 3.0 percent over one, three and five years. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 9 November 2026.
What to watch
Three dated steps would change this reading, and each one is a published release rather than an instruction to take a side.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules the October producer price index for 0830 Eastern time on 13 November, and a soft wholesale reading would be grounds to mark the 7-cent gain down.
- The calendar leaves one 2026 decision, on 8 to 9 December, and the contract ends on 10 December. Yes requires the upper bound to rise by the end of that meeting, or on an emergency increase dated on or after 17 September.
- A December decision that leaves the upper bound at 4 percent would change this reading, because a negative resolution waits on that statement.
A prediction-market price is a traded quote under the contract’s own rules, separate from a Federal Reserve forecast and separate from any prompt to transact.