I pulled the Jensen Huang resignation contract off Polymarket's gamma-api at 07:14 UTC on 12 November 2026, and the year-end Yes price on that print was 80.5 cents.
The bid on that leg was 80 cents, the ask was 81, and the last trade was 80. The one-day price change field read plus 0.65. The contract pays if a departure by Jensen Huang as chief executive of NVIDIA, through resignation or through removal, is officially announced by 11:59 pm Eastern on the year-end deadline. With no separate probability this desk can defend from the filings it opened, the book is the information, and the call sits in line with 80.5 cents.
| Deadline, 11:59 pm Eastern | Yes | Bid / ask | Last | Volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 November | 59.5% | 59 / 60 | 60 | $2,338,805 | $153,553 |
| 13 November | 64.0% | 63 / 65 | 65 | $780,267 | $61,578 |
| 30 November | 77.5% | 77 / 78 | 79 | $543,649 | $53,625 |
| 31 December | 80.5% | 80 / 81 | 80 | $4,671,747 | $75,117 |
| 31 March 2027 | 84.5% | 84 / 85 | 84 | $686,475 | $61,870 |
| 31 December 2027 | 86.5% | 86 / 87 | 86 | $490,190 | $66,953 |
The year-end leg is the contract under review. Adding the six open volumeNum fields gives $9,511,132. The resolved 11 November leg, volumeNum $7,122,485, accounts for the rest of the event total of $16,633,617. Gamma marked that leg resolved, outcome prices 0 and 1, liquidity field empty, so the 0 is a settlement result and stays off the live ladder.
Year-end Yes sits 3.0 points above 30 November, 80.5 against 77.5. March, at 84.5 cents, sits 4.0 points above year-end. The following December, at 86.5 cents, sits 6.0 points above it. Twenty-one points separate the 12 November leg, at 59.5 cents, from the year-end print.
The year-end page is the Jensen Huang resignation event. Links to Polymarket are affiliate links, from which The Traders Spread may earn a commission at no cost to you. Volume on the year-end leg is $4,671,747 against $75,117 of resting liquidity. The 12 November leg, still open on this pull, shows the deepest open liquidity, $153,553, on $2,338,805 of volume.
How the rule text draws the line
Yes, on the description gamma returned, requires an official announcement that Jensen Huang has resigned or been removed as chief executive of NVIDIA, or that he will, from Huang, from NVIDIA, or from an authorized representative, by the deadline. Resignation includes stepping down into another role at the company. Removal includes dismissal by the board. The departure has to be framed as taking effect within 18 months, and the formal exit can fall after the announcement.
Temporary leave, a suspension, and administrative leave sit outside a Yes resolution, as do a considering-departure line, a conditional statement, and a resignation offer still awaiting acceptance. Media reports that he plans to depart sit on that list too. Official information from Huang and from NVIDIA is the primary source, and credible reporting can evidence an announcement already made. A report that a departure is being prepared stays outside the test, which is why 80.5 cents can print beside a confidence statement from four days earlier.
What NVIDIA has put in writing
On 8 November 2026 the NVIDIA board posted its own account. "The Board has confidence in Jensen and his leadership team and will provide further updates as appropriate," the directors wrote, after saying a committee of independent directors, assisted by outside counsel, would oversee an investigation into reporting that founder and chief executive Jensen Huang had been the target of a foreign intelligence effort. The same NVIDIA board statement says, "While the Board has no reason to believe that either national security or NVIDIA secrets were compromised, the Board's inquiry will examine all available information."
The same day, Huang sent employees an email that NVIDIA posted under the heading "A Message to Our Company." Jensen Huang, founder and chief executive of NVIDIA, wrote, "I am fully committed to NVIDIA and will work to earn back your confidence," after an apology in which he said he had been unfaithful to his wife. The line is in the company PDF of that email. A commitment to remain names a resignation in exactly zero clauses.
On 10 November 2026 the independent members of the board said they had retained Joon H Kim, former acting US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, and his firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, "to conduct a thorough and independent investigation as was announced on Sunday." The sentence is in the independent directors' statement. Hiring counsel names a lawyer and a firm, and the release itself supplies no departure line.
NVIDIA's fiscal 2026 Form 10-K, the EDGAR document nvda-20260125, opened on 12 November 2026, handles succession as a general risk factor rather than as a named plan. The filing says, "Additionally, we are highly dependent on the services of our longstanding executive team. Failure to ensure effective succession planning, transfer of knowledge, and smooth transitions involving executives and key employees could hinder our strategic planning, execution, and long-term success." The sentence records a dependency, and the traded probability stays on the book.
| Document | Date | Sentence on the page | Qualifying departure line |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA board statement | 8 November 2026 | Confidence in Jensen, plus an inquiry into a reported intelligence effort | Absent from the release |
| Huang email to the company | 8 November 2026 | Fully committed to NVIDIA, and an apology to his wife | Absent from the email |
| Independent directors | 10 November 2026 | Joon H Kim and Wachtell Lipton retained for the inquiry | Absent from the release |
| Form 10-K, nvda-20260125 | Opened 12 November 2026 | Succession planning stated as a general risk factor | Absent from that risk factor |
| EDGAR 8-K company feed | Opened 12 November 2026 | Newest current report is 3 September 2026, Item 8.01 | Absent from the feed |
| Wall Street Journal archive | Saved 00:50 UTC, 12 November 2026 | Board planning to meet as soon as Wednesday, people familiar said | Absent from the capture |
Each page in that table carries a real sentence, and the column the contract pays on stays empty on every row.
What the Journal's account adds
The Wall Street Journal story, in the archive.is capture saved at 00:50:17 UTC on 12 November 2026, quotes this line: "The board is planning to meet as soon as Wednesday to determine his future, people familiar with the matter said." That capture is 7:50 pm Eastern on 11 November, before the leg's 11:59 pm Eastern deadline, the gamma endDate of 2026-11-12T04:59:00Z. The story was already public when that leg later resolved.
Siladitya Ray, a Forbes staff reporter at Forbes, in a story updated at 12:54 am Eastern on 12 November 2026, wrote that Nvidia shares fell 8.61 percent after hours to $158.78, from a regular close of $173.73, up 2.92 percent. On that page, Reuters confirmed a late-Wednesday board meeting, the New York Times reported a relationship with Kimberly Powell, vice president of healthcare, Bloomberg reported an outside firm working on replacements, and John Moolenaar, House China Committee chairman, said Huang had until 5 pm Eastern Wednesday to agree to a closed-door briefing.
The Journal's account also describes Huang as 63 and as owning about 3.6 percent of the company, which on that figure leaves a board decision with the other directors. The rule text is what sits between that meeting and a Yes.
Gamma marks the 11 November market resolved, outcome prices 0 and 1, liquidity field empty, volume $7,122,485, after a story that was already public. How a proposal becomes a resolution is the path on the proposal versus dispute page. A qualifying announcement would resemble the company print that settles a beat contract, and a dated exit turns on a clock, the same shape as the Putin-out deadline.
The filing that is still absent
EDGAR's company feed for NVIDIA 8-K filings, opened on 12 November 2026 at the SEC current-report list, shows the newest current report dated 3 September 2026, an Item 8.01, with the eight reports on that feed running back through 8 May 2026. A November departure item is absent. The 2 July 2026 entry is an Item 5.02, the most recent officer item listed, months before this deadline. Silence on the feed is a fact about filings.
The gamma endDate on the year-end leg is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z. That instant is 11:59 pm Eastern on 31 December 2026, the deadline written into the rule. The event's own endDate field reads 2027-04-01T03:59:00Z, because the March leg is still attached and that timestamp is 11:59 pm Eastern on 31 March 2027. The contract this call follows is the year-end leg, stored here as 31 December 2026.
Why the book is the information
A fair value here would be a probability computed from sources opened for the piece. Those sources describe an inquiry, a commitment to stay, a counsel hire, a general succession risk factor, a reported meeting, an 8.61 percent after-hours decline to $158.78, and an EDGAR feed whose newest 8-K is 3 September 2026. They stop short of a number for the chance a closed meeting becomes a qualifying announcement.
Fair value stays unset, and the call is in line with the traded price, because there is no gap to compute against a separate estimate. The 80.5 cent print, bid 80 and ask 81, is the information.
The 30 November contract, on its own Polymarket page, was 77.5 cents on this print, three points under the year-end leg, with $543,649 of volume and $53,625 of liquidity. Most of the year-end price is already on that nearer page. The extra three points are the market's allowance for an announcement after 30 November and still by the year-end deadline.
The March contract, on the later page beside it, was 84.5 cents, four points over the year-end leg, on $686,475 of volume and $61,870 of liquidity. The following December, at 86.5 cents, adds two points and $490,190 of volume, so the curve is already front-loaded into November.
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The blue bar is the Yes price and the orange bar is the other outcome from the same field, so a modelled fair value is present in exactly zero series. The eighteen-point step from 12 November to 30 November, then three points to year-end and four to March, is the shape.
What would move a fair value
A fair value moves when the record gains a sentence the rule already defines. An Item 5.02 or a newsroom statement in which NVIDIA or Jensen Huang says he has resigned, been removed, or will leave inside 18 months is the resolution event, and a fair value would go to the top of the range even if the effective date falls after the announcement.
A company statement that he remains chief executive through the deadline would push a fair value down from the traded price. A leave, a suspension, or a closed-door briefing would leave a fair value on the traded price, outside the resolution clause.
A Polymarket clarification that narrowed "authorized representatives," or that placed a named class of board leak inside or outside the test, would move a fair value as well. That phrase is the hinge between a sourced report and a settlement. Until one of those documents exists, the 80.5 cent print from 07:14 UTC on 12 November 2026 is the number, and the call stays in line with the book.
Key facts
- The 31 December Yes price was 80.5 cents at 07:14 UTC on 12 November 2026, bid 80, ask 81, last trade 80, on $4,671,747 of volume and $75,117 of liquidity. Source: Polymarket gamma-api, 12 November 2026.
- The same leg's one-day price change field read plus 0.65. Source: Polymarket gamma-api, 12 November 2026.
- The 11 November leg is resolved, outcome prices 0 and 1, after $7,122,485 of volume, with the liquidity field empty. Source: Polymarket gamma-api, 12 November 2026.
- Adding the six open legs' volume gives $9,511,132, inside an event total of $16,633,617. Source: Polymarket gamma-api, 12 November 2026.
- The NVIDIA board said on 8 November 2026 that it had confidence in Jensen and his leadership team while opening an investigation. Source: NVIDIA newsroom, 8 November 2026.
- The independent directors said on 10 November 2026 that they had retained Joon H Kim and Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz. Source: NVIDIA newsroom, 10 November 2026.
- NVIDIA's newest 8-K on the EDGAR company feed is dated 3 September 2026, and Forbes reported an 8.61 percent after-hours decline to $158.78. Source: SEC EDGAR and Forbes, retrieved 12 November 2026.
FAQ
What announcement settles the Jensen Huang exit contract?
Gamma requires a public, definitive announcement, from Jensen Huang, from NVIDIA, or from an authorized representative, that he has resigned or been removed as chief executive, or that he will, with the departure intended within 18 months. Company information is the primary source, and credible reporting can be used once that announcement exists. The endDate is 04:59 UTC on 1 January 2027, which is 11:59 pm Eastern on 31 December 2026.
Why did the 11 November leg resolve while the headlines were still running?
The Journal capture was saved at 00:50 UTC on 12 November 2026, which is 7:50 pm Eastern on 11 November, ahead of that leg's 11:59 pm Eastern deadline. Gamma now shows the leg resolved, Yes at 0 and the other outcome at 1, after $7,122,485 of volume, even though the capture already had the board planning to meet.
Where does the 80.5 cent price sit on the ladder?
On the 07:14 UTC print, 30 November was 77.5 cents and 31 December was 80.5, a gap of 3.0 points. March 2027 was 84.5 cents, 4.0 points higher, and the following December was 86.5 cents, 6.0 points higher. The 12 November leg was still open at 59.5 cents, 21 points below the year-end price, with the deepest open liquidity at $153,553.
Why is fair value left blank on this book?
A separate fair value would be a number for the chance that a closed meeting becomes a qualifying announcement before the deadline. The board statements, the chief executive's email, the fiscal 2026 10-K risk factor, and the EDGAR feed describe an investigation, a confidence line, a counsel hire, and a missing November departure filing. They carry the record and withhold a probability, so the book remains the information and the call stays in line.
Which filing would move a fair value from here?
An NVIDIA Item 5.02 or a newsroom statement saying Jensen Huang has resigned, been removed, or will leave the chief executive role inside 18 months would meet the contract's test and lift a fair value to the top of the range. A statement that he remains through the deadline would push a fair value down from 80.5 cents. A leave, a suspension, or a report of a meeting would leave a fair value on the traded price.
This note is a market snapshot of one Polymarket contract and is not a recommendation to take either side.