The idea that a House turnout bracket above 90 cents is a finished count does not survive the latest print. At 06:59 UTC on 9 November 2026, Polymarket's Gamma API put the 120-125 million Yes contract at 85.2 cents, down 8.35 points on the day from 93.55 cents. The 125-130 million contract stood at 9.6 cents, up 7.7 points on the day. Both prints are on the house turnout Polymarket event. Links to Polymarket are affiliate links, from which The Traders Spread may earn a commission at no cost to you.
The 120 million bracket remains the lead outcome, and the 125 million bracket took more of the session's volume. Seat control for the same chamber is a different book, the US House control market.
A week earlier the 120 million bracket was a side bet
A week earlier the 120-125 million contract sat at 14 cents. Gamma's one-week change is a rise of 71.2 points into the low 90s. The 115-120 million contract fell 19.15 points on the week, to 8.85 cents. Lower bands, including 130 million and above, now show the 0.05-cent floor.
The last day handed volume to the 125 million bracket
Over the 24 hours to that pull, the 125-130 million House turnout contract traded about $19,235, against about $14,575 on the 120-125 million contract and about $7,934 on the 115-120 million contract. Event volume was about $41,744 in the window and about $114,022 since 20 February 2026.
On the lead contract the bid was 78.9 cents and the ask was 91.5 cents, with the last trade at 91.9 cents. Liquidity was about $4,024, against about $8,483 on the higher band, where the bid was 3.2 cents and the ask was 16 cents. The displayed price is the midpoint of bid and ask.
| Bracket | Yes midpoint | One-day change | 24-hour volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 115-120 million | 8.85 cents | +4.2 points | $7,934 |
| 120-125 million | 85.2 cents | -8.35 points | $14,575 |
| 125-130 million | 9.6 cents | +7.7 points | $19,235 |
Polymarket Gamma API, markets updated at 06:59 UTC on 9 November 2026. Volume is rounded to the nearest dollar.
Orange bars are the day-earlier prices, each midpoint minus Gamma's one-day change. The 120-125 million earlier bar rounds 93.55 cents to 93.6 percent.
The Clerk sheet is the total these brackets use
The contract pays on votes for US Representative from the 50 states, and leaves out Delegates and the Resident Commissioner. A figure that lands exactly between two brackets pays the higher bracket. The source named in the rules is the Clerk of the House file for this election. If that file is still absent at 11:59 pm Eastern Time on 30 June 2027, another credible source may be used, and an election that misses the deadline resolves to Other.
The Clerk index, opened on 9 November 2026, lists files through 2024 and stops short of a 2026 file. The 2024 recapitulation, published 10 March 2025, records 149,543,421 votes for Representatives. The 2022 recapitulation, published 28 February 2023, records 108,443,387. The 120-125 million band sits between those two totals.
A proposal can still be disputed once a total exists. That step is separate from the count, and it is the subject of how Polymarket resolution works.
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Key facts
- The 120-125 million Yes midpoint was 85.2 cents, down 8.35 points on the day, bid 78.9 and ask 91.5, on the Polymarket Gamma API at 06:59 UTC on 9 November 2026.
- The 125-130 million Yes midpoint was 9.6 cents, up 7.7 points on the day, with about $19,235 of 24-hour volume, on the Polymarket Gamma API at 06:59 UTC on 9 November 2026.
- Event volume was about $41,744 over 24 hours and about $114,022 in total, on the Polymarket Gamma API at 06:59 UTC on 9 November 2026.
- Clerk recapitulations record 108,443,387 House votes for 8 November 2022 and 149,543,421 for 5 November 2024, published 28 February 2023 and 10 March 2025, opened 9 November 2026.
- A value exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher bracket, and delegate votes stay outside the sum, in the Polymarket rules read from Gamma on 9 November 2026.
What to watch
The next Gamma print on the 125-130 million contract is the near-term tell, after an hour that lifted it 4.2 points while the favorite fell 4.0. The lasting print is the Clerk recapitulation for 2026. The labels meet at 125 million, and a figure exactly between the brackets pays the higher one.
A 12.6-cent spread means the midpoint can jump when either quote moves. Until the Clerk file exists, the price is a quote on an open book.
This report records contract prices and the Clerk totals cited above. It is not a recommendation to take a side in the market.