I pulled the New Zealand election event on Polymarket's gamma feed in this session. National's yes price was 98.6 cents at 20:48 UTC on 7 November 2026, up 39.6 points on the contract's own one-day change. The yes token's CLOB history ran from 59 cents at 21:00 UTC on 6 November to 98.7 cents at 20:00 UTC on 7 November.
Labour's yes price was 1.35 cents on that pull, and 24-hour event volume was $503,260, with the event still marked active. Prices and the resolution wording are on the New Zealand legislative election winner page. Links to Polymarket are affiliate links, from which The Traders Spread may earn a commission at no cost to you. Only the seats settle this contract. On the board I opened, Labour was slightly ahead on votes and six seats behind.
1. National's yes price rose 39.6 points
The move was concentrated between the 08:00 UTC bucket at 68 cents and the 09:00 UTC bucket at 95.5 cents, as ordinary votes were reported in New Zealand. The payload lists the event end at 04:59 UTC on 8 November 2026.
2. "Too close to call," Luxon told the room
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon spoke to National supporters in Auckland around midnight. RNZ quoted him: "We have a pathway to forming the next Government, but it is too close to call." He put the outstanding special votes at about 300,000. Labour leader Chris Hipkins said on the same report: "It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you've said. Every vote matters, and every vote must now be counted."
That RNZ story, timestamped 6:54am on 8 November 2026, had both parties on 29.3 percent with 98.5 percent counted, National holding 42 of 64 electorate seats and Labour on 35 seats. Eva Corlett in The Guardian put official results on 27 November, with National on 42 seats, Act on 13 and New Zealand First on 12.
3. Six seats separate the parties on the preliminary board
RNZ's results board, labelled 100 percent counted and updated at 3:45am on 8 November 2026, takes its seat figures from the Electoral Commission. National had 706,680 party votes, 29.2 percent, and 42 electorate seats. Labour had 710,330 party votes, 29.4 percent, and 36 seats, made up of 21 electorates and 15 list seats. Parliament stood at 131 seats, with 11 overhangs, and 66 were needed to govern. The percentage tracks voting places that have reported, and special votes are still outside this count.
| Party | Party vote | Seats | Yes price |
|---|---|---|---|
| National | 29.2% (706,680) | 42 | 98.6 cents |
| Labour | 29.4% (710,330) | 36 | 1.35 cents |
RNZ board at 3:45am on 8 November 2026, Electoral Commission data. Yes prices from Polymarket gamma-api at 20:48 UTC on 7 November 2026.
The gamma text pays the party with the most seats in the House of Representatives, not the party with the larger share of the party vote. A tie on seats goes to valid party list votes, then alphabetical order. If the outcome is still open at 11:59pm ET on 31 October 2027, the market resolves to Other. Labour leads that party vote by 3,650 ballots and trails by six seats. A seat-count question for another chamber is the Duma seat-gain market.
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Key facts
- National's yes price was 98.6 cents, up 39.6 points on the day, bid 98.5 and ask 98.7, on the Polymarket gamma-api updated at 20:48 UTC on 7 November 2026.
- Labour's yes price was 1.35 cents, down 39.65 points on the day, bid 1.3 and ask 1.4, on the Polymarket gamma-api pulled on 7 November 2026.
- Event volume was $503,260 over 24 hours, with liquidity of $178,962 and total volume of $740,114, on the Polymarket gamma-api on 7 November 2026.
- National had 29.2 percent and 42 seats, and Labour 29.4 percent and 36 seats, in a 131-seat Parliament, from RNZ using Electoral Commission figures at 3:45am on 8 November 2026.
- Official results are expected on 27 November, and the preliminary count excludes special votes, according to the RNZ results board on 8 November 2026.
What to watch
RNZ and The Guardian both put the official count on 27 November. In 2023, Corlett wrote, about 600,000 special votes tended to favour the left, and Te Pāti Māori and the Greens gained three seats between them. Luxon cited about 300,000 still out, against an Electoral Commission forecast of about 700,000 in the RNZ report.
Whether special votes narrow that six-seat lead is the open question, because a tie would turn on party list votes. A different election book is the Texas Senate odds page.
This report records contract prices and published counts. It is not a recommendation to take a side in the market.