Prediction Markets
What the odds actually say — Polymarket and event-market pricing versus the probabilities we can defend.
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Duma Seat-Gain Odds: United Russia 78% vs Our 69% Fair Value
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Sweden Election Odds: Andersson 80.5% vs Our 72% Fair Value
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Venezuela Leader Odds: Maduro's 82.65% Rests on a Stale List
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
US House Control 2026: Why Polymarket's 86.6% Isn't Settled
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Fed Rate Cuts 2026: Polymarket Prices 92.85% Odds of Zero
Government shutdown by October 1?
US Government Shutdown Odds at 2.2% With 26 Days to the Deadline
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Clarity Act Odds at 12.5% With 36 Senate Days Left in 2026
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Israel Next PM Odds: Eisenkot 48.9% vs Our 43% Fair Value
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Democratic Nominee 2028: AOC at 20% on a Thin Order Book
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Strait of Hormuz Odds at 28.5% With Transits at 5 a Day
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Anthropic at 60% to Be 2026's Biggest IPO Has No S-1 on File
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?