AUD/JPY Forecast: 118.00 Bull Case vs 104.00 Bear Case
AUD/JPY forecast: the BoJ hiked to 1.25% yet the cross rose 1.5%, and the RBA carry gap is still wider than in January. Bull case 118.00, bear case 104.00.
Latest by Abdelaziz
24+ articles
EUR/JPY Forecast: 188.00 Bull Case vs 172.00 Bear Case
EUR/JPY forecast to 31 Dec 2026: the ECB and BoJ hiked eight days apart, the 125bp gap held and Tokyo has spent ¥27tn on yen. Base 177.50, bull 188, bear 172.
EUR/CHF Forecast: 0.9750 Bull Case vs 0.9150 Bear Case
EUR/CHF settled at 0.9462 on 18 September with the ECB at 2.50% and the SNB at zero. Our base case is 0.9550, bull 0.9750 and bear 0.9150 by 30 June 2027.
EUR/NOK Forecast: 11.50 Bull Case vs 10.30 Bear Case
Norges Bank just flipped to selling NOK 176m a day as Brent hit $130.80. Our EUR/NOK forecast: an 11.50 bull case against a 10.30 bear case to Q1 2027.
EUR/GBP Forecast: 0.8800 Bull Case vs 0.8420 Bear Case
EUR/GBP sits at 0.8587 after the ECB hiked to 2.50% and the Bank of England held 6-3. Why the two-year gilt-Schatz spread pays sterling 28bp it has not earned.
CAC 40 Forecast: 8,900 Bull Case vs 7,300 Bear Case to Year-End
CAC 40 forecast to 31 December: 8,900 bull vs 7,300 bear from 8,141, as luxury stocks shed €252bn and France's 10-year yield now sits 9bp above Italy's.
Dow Jones Forecast: 58,000 Bull Case vs 46,000 Bear Case
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,093.11 on 15 September. Why a price-weighted index makes Goldman Sachs matter 4.6 times more than Nvidia, what Caterpillar's 1,483.8-point hole says about the rest of 2026, and the levels behind a 58,000 bull case and a 46,000 bear case.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: 32,000 Bull Case vs 26,000 Bear Case
Nasdaq 100 forecast to 31 December: chips cost the index about 2,115 points since 30 June as the 10-year yield hit 4.97%. Bull 32,000, base 28,000, bear 26,000.
Nikkei 225 Forecast: 72,000 Bull Case vs 56,000 Bear Case for Q4
Nikkei 225 forecast to 31 Dec: 72,000 bull vs 56,000 bear from 63,493. SoftBank cost 561 points on 14 Sep as TOPIX rose, and the Fed and BOJ meet this week.
S&P 500 Forecast: 8,400 Bull Case vs 6,700 Bear Case to Year-End
S&P 500 forecast to 31 December: 8,400 bull vs 6,700 bear from 7,657, as the index's forward earnings yield beats the 10-year Treasury by just 0.28 points.
FTSE 100 Forecast: 11,500 Bull Case vs 9,700 Bear Case for Q4
FTSE 100 forecast to year-end: 11,500 bull vs 9,700 bear from 10,609, as banks, miners and oil did nearly 90% of the lifting and the BoE decides 17 September.
DAX Forecast: 27,500 Bull Case vs 23,500 Bear Case for Q4 2026
DAX forecast for Q4 2026: a 27,500 bull case against a 23,500 bear case from spot 25,576, with German industrial output down 1.6% and yields at a 2026 high.
GBP/JPY Forecast: 218.00 Bull Case vs 198.00 Bear Case
GBP/JPY fell 7.72 yen in five sessions while sterling rose against the dollar. Over the last 20 sessions, 91.4% of the cross's variance came from the yen leg.
USD/BRL Forecast: 5.60 Bull Case vs 4.75 Bear Case for Q1 2027
USD/BRL fixed at 5.1261 on the ECB's 7 September rate, with Copom holding 10.4 points of carry into Brazil's October election. Q1 2027: 5.60 bull, 4.75 bear.
USD/TRY Forecast: 56.50 Bull Case vs 47.80 Bear Case
USD/TRY trades at 48.44 and the carry, not the direction, is the trade. What a dollar funder actually earns against a 24% annualised crawl, and the 57.84 breakeven.
USD/ZAR Forecast: 17.20 Bull Case vs 15.10 Bear Case
USD/ZAR sits at 15.9672 while platinum is down a third from its January peak. Why the rand rose anyway, and where the 17.20 bull and 15.10 bear cases sit.
NZD/USD Forecast: 0.6150 Bull Case vs 0.5550 Bear Case
NZD/USD trades near 0.5886 after the RBNZ hiked the OCR to 2.75%. A flat year on the dollar hides a 9.3% kiwi loss to the Aussie. Bull 0.6150, bear 0.5550.
EUR/USD Forecast: 1.2050 Bull Case vs 1.1250 Bear Case
EUR/USD holds 1.1578 with the two-year US-euro spread at 151bp and carry costing a euro long 167 pips a year. Bull case 1.2050, bear case 1.1250, base 1.1500.
USD/CHF Forecast: 0.8620 Bull Case vs 0.7650 Bear Case
The dollar buys 0.81396 francs while Swiss overnight money pays below zero and the Fed pays 3.63%. Where USD/CHF goes next, and the level that breaks the case.
Vantage FX review
Vantage FX review: ASIC, FCA and CIMA-regulated STP/ECN broker with raw spreads from 0.0 pips plus $3 per side, $200 minimum deposit, MT4 and MT5. 4.3/5.
Plus500 review
Plus500 review: LSE-listed market maker regulated by the FCA, CySEC, ASIC, FMA, FSCA and MAS, 2,000+ CFDs and EUR/USD from 0.6 pips. 4/5.
Pepperstone review
Pepperstone review: ASIC and FCA-regulated no-dealing-desk broker, Razor spreads from 0.0 pips plus A$3.50 per side, MT4, MT5 and cTrader. 4.5/5.
IG Markets review
IG Markets review: the oldest and largest retail CFD broker, FCA and ASIC-regulated, 16,000+ markets, EUR/USD from 0.6 pips, IG web, MT4. 4.5/5.
IC Markets review
IC Markets review: ASIC and CySEC-regulated ECN broker, raw spreads from 0.0 pips plus $3 per side, fast execution on MT4, MT5 and cTrader. 4.4/5.