Oklahoma Data-Center Moratorium Price Stays In Line
Oklahoma data-center moratorium: the December 2027 price of 25.5% is in line with the file. SB 1488 never received a vote, and the May statutes are not a halt.
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October AI Model: 4,942 Votes Behind a 70.9-Cent Price
October AI model prices Google at 70.9 cents to lead Arena on 31 October. The top row rests on 4,942 preliminary votes. We put fair value at 66 percent.
Fed October Decision Sits In Line With November Futures
Fed October decision no-change at 57.5% sits in line with a 58% fair value from November fed funds futures. Not the September meeting or the year count.
Bulgaria Presidential Election: Iotova's 81.5% Prices the Run-Off
Bulgaria presidential election odds: Polymarket has Iotova at 81.5%, but a 50% turnout rule makes it a run-off price. Our fair value is 86%, Gyurov 13.2%.
Largest Company 2026: Nvidia at 74.5% on a 9% Market-Cap Edge
Largest Company 2026 odds: Polymarket prices Nvidia at 74.5%, but a 9% market-cap margin over Apple and 43% ratio volatility put our fair value at 60.5%.
UEFA Champions League 2027: Barcelona 23.5% vs Our 12% Fair Value
UEFA Champions League 2027 odds: Polymarket prices Barcelona at 23.5%, but Opta ratings and our 40,000-run simulation put the club's title chance near 12%.
Knicks' 11.5% Title Price Tops Sixers, Who Lead Polymarket's East
Polymarket prices the Knicks at 11.5% to repeat as NBA champions, above the 76ers, while its East board ranks New York second. Our fair value for the leg is 9%.
Maine Senate Polls Don't Overlap and a 68.5% Leg Shed 5 Points
The Maine Senate board sits at 68.5% after two polls with non-overlapping field windows knocked 5 points off the Democratic leg. Our fair value is 60%.
Los Angeles Mayor: Raman's Odds Hit 58% as Pratt Voters Hold Out
Los Angeles Mayor race: one Berkeley IGS poll moved Nithya Raman to 57.95% on Polymarket. Our model of six runoff polls and the June count puts her at 63.5%.
Alaska Senate: Polymarket Has Peltola at 78.5%, Cook Says Toss Up
Polymarket prices Mary Peltola at 78.5% in the Alaska Senate race. She also topped Alaska's 2024 primary, then lost in November. Our fair value is 62%.
Romania's Next PM Market Favours Nazare Over Designate Mureșan
Romania's next-PM board has Nazare at 33.3% and designate Mureșan at 17.85% after PSD refused to back him. Why we put Mureșan at 9% and the field much higher.
Friedrich Merz Can Lose His Coalition and Still Be Chancellor
Friedrich Merz is 23.5% on Polymarket to be out as chancellor by 31 Dec, but under the Basic Law a coalition collapse alone cannot remove him. Our fair: 16%.
Milwaukee Brewers Priced at 15% With Baseball's Best Record
The Milwaukee Brewers hold baseball's best record and run differential, yet Polymarket prices them at 15% for the 2026 World Series. Our fair value: 21%.
Los Angeles Rams at 11.5% Rank Third in Their Own Division
Polymarket's $57.07m Super Bowl board prices the Los Angeles Rams at 11.5%, second of 32 legs, while its NFC West market ranks them third. Our fair value: 8%.
TIME Person of the Year 2026: $378 Sets 24.8% of the Board
Four Artemis II astronauts hold 24.8% of the TIME Person of the Year 2026 board on just $378 of volume. The 22 legs sum to 158.2%. Our fair value is 10.0%.
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kane at 56% After a Season With No Final
Ballon d'Or 2026: Polymarket prices Harry Kane at 56.35%, yet every season-format winner since 2022 won a major final. We put Kane at 50% and show the working.
Nobel Peace Prize 2026 Odds Leave 40.5% Off the Board
Polymarket's 71 legs for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize sum to 59.55%, leaving a 40.45% chance the laureate is nobody on the board — and no way to trade it.
Berlin Election: Die Linke's 63.5% Misses the Seat-Tie Rule
Polymarket prices Die Linke at 63.5% to win the most Berlin seats on 20 September, but its rules hand any seat tie to the CDU. Our fair value is lower, at 60%.
F1 Drivers' Title Odds: Antonelli 91% vs Our 96.8% Fair Value
Polymarket prices Kimi Antonelli's F1 2026 title at 91% with an 81-point lead and 233 points left, but our race-data model says 96.8%. The method and the risks.
Senate Control Odds: Democrats 52.5% vs Our 50% Fair Value
Polymarket prices a Democratic Senate at 52.5%, but DDHQ, Silver Bulletin and a Cook-based seat model average 50%, and a 50-50 Senate resolves Republican.
Duma Seat-Gain Odds: United Russia 78% vs Our 69% Fair Value
Polymarket prices United Russia at 78% to gain the most Duma seats. The rules count seats gained, not won, and our three-reading model puts fair value at 69%.
Sweden Election Odds: Andersson 80.5% vs Our 72% Fair Value
Polymarket puts Magdalena Andersson at 80.5% to be Sweden's next prime minister. Our bloc-and-formation model says 72%, and prices the tail the book ignores.
Venezuela Leader Odds: Maduro's 82.65% Rests on a Stale List
Venezuela's foreign ministry called Delcy Rodriguez the head of state on 7 September. A UN list dated 8 September still names Maduro. Polymarket is pricing the second document and ignoring the first.
US House Control 2026: Why Polymarket's 86.6% Isn't Settled
US House control 2026 prices at 86.6% on Polymarket once de-vigged, not 87.5%. The order book and our own 30-day poll average say the confidence is borrowed.