Duma Seat-Gain Odds: United Russia 78% vs Our 69% Fair Value
Polymarket prices United Russia at 78% to gain the most Duma seats. The rules count seats gained, not won, and our three-reading model puts fair value at 69%.
Latest by Karthik
24+ articles
Sweden Election Odds: Andersson 80.5% vs Our 72% Fair Value
Polymarket puts Magdalena Andersson at 80.5% to be Sweden's next prime minister. Our bloc-and-formation model says 72%, and prices the tail the book ignores.
Venezuela Leader Odds: Maduro's 82.65% Rests on a Stale List
Venezuela's foreign ministry called Delcy Rodriguez the head of state on 7 September. A UN list dated 8 September still names Maduro. Polymarket is pricing the second document and ignoring the first.
US House Control 2026: Why Polymarket's 86.6% Isn't Settled
US House control 2026 prices at 86.6% on Polymarket once de-vigged, not 87.5%. The order book and our own 30-day poll average say the confidence is borrowed.
Fed Rate Cuts 2026: Polymarket Prices 92.85% Odds of Zero
Fed rate cuts in 2026: Polymarket prices the zero-cut leg at 92.85%. Our fair value is 95%, built from the June dot plot and the CME SOFR options surface.
US Government Shutdown Odds at 2.2% With 26 Days to the Deadline
The US government shutdown contract for October 1 still quotes 2.2% on Polymarket, three days after H.R. 6500 became law and funded the government to December 11. The bid is 1.5 cents, the spread is 1.3, and the book is bigger than everything that has ever traded through it.
Clarity Act Odds at 12.5% With 36 Senate Days Left in 2026
Clarity Act odds sit at 12.5% on Polymarket. A cloture vote lands 15 September and only 36 Senate session days remain in 2026. Our fair value is 16.2%.
Israel Next PM Odds: Eisenkot 48.9% vs Our 43% Fair Value
Israel next PM odds: Polymarket has Gadi Eisenkot at 48.9% before the 27 October Knesset election. Our seat-and-coalition model puts fair value at 43%.
Platinum Price Prediction: $2,400 Bull vs $1,380 Bear Case
Platinum spot is $1,764/oz. WPIC forecasts a 297koz 2026 deficit, but strip out investment flows and the physical market runs a 222koz surplus. Bull $2,400, bear $1,380.
Democratic Nominee 2028: AOC at 20% on a Thin Order Book
Polymarket's Democratic Nominee 2028 market has traded $1.27bn, yet 93.5% of its resting depth sits in legs priced under 1%. What the top of the board is really worth.
Ethereum (ETH) Rose 26% in August as Bitmine Hit 4.9% of Supply
Ethereum (ETH) rose 26.0% over the August 2026 calendar month, but a single 19-20 August session carried 17.5 points of it as Bitmine hit 4.89% of supply.
Tesla (TSLA) Jumps 5.5% as 45 Cybercabs Hit the Texas Registry
Tesla (TSLA) closed 31 August up 5.51% at $367.95 as Texas logged 45 Cybercabs and the Austin robotaxi geofence widened 9% for the first time in ten months.
Strait of Hormuz Odds at 28.5% With Transits at 5 a Day
Strait of Hormuz normalisation is priced at 28.5% on Polymarket, yet IMF PortWatch shows transits at 5 a day against a 60 barrier. Our fair value is 13%.
USD/CAD Forecast: 1.4250 Bull Case vs 1.3350 Bear Case
USD/CAD trades at 1.3886 with the Fed 137.5bp above the Bank of Canada. Our bull case is 1.4250, the bear 1.3350, and why the 1.33-1.38 consensus is wrong.
Capital.com Review 2026: No Commission, 116% Margin Cost
Capital.com charges no commission and no inactivity fee, yet a long gold CFD burns 5.81% of notional a year in overnight funding: 116% of the margin posted.
Natural Gas Price Prediction: $4.20 Bull vs $2.10 Bear Case
Natural Gas trades at $2.938/MMBtu, but EIA needs 80 Bcf a week to hit its record October storage forecast. Our bull case is $4.20, our bear case $2.10.
ActivTrades Review 2026: EUR/USD Runs 0.8 Pips, Not 0.5
ActivTrades review 2026: EUR/USD quoted a median 0.8 pips against its 0.5 target, and 8 of 15 majors never hit the floor. Costs, entities, FCA record.
Morpho (MORPHO) Jumps 27% in 30 Days as Base Deposits Top $5bn
Morpho (MORPHO) trades at $2.55 after a 27.6% August as Base deposits pass $5bn and Morpho Blue TVL reaches $9.51bn. Live CoinGecko and DefiLlama figures.
Anthropic at 60% to Be 2026's Biggest IPO Has No S-1 on File
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 60.6% to be 2026 largest IPO, yet no S-1 sits on EDGAR and SpaceX first-day bar is already $2.53tn. Fair value: 14%.
Lululemon (LULU) Stock Forecast: $165 Bull vs $95 Bear
Lululemon (LULU) at $120.81 before the 3 September Q2 print: why February's tariff ruling relabelled the overhang, plus the $165 bull and $95 bear maths.
Lithium Carbonate Hits 161,000 Yuan as CATL Restart Stalls
Lithium carbonate closed at 161,000 yuan a tonne on GFEX as CATL's Jianxiawo mine stayed shut, while Western lithium equities ran far ahead of the curve.
EUR/HUF Forecast: 380 Bull Case vs 350 Bear Case for 2026
EUR/HUF trades at 364.79 after the MNB cut to 5.50%. Why 100bp of 2026 easing cost the forint just 10bp of real carry, and what takes it to 380 or 350.
GBP/USD Forecast: 1.4050 Bull Case vs 1.3050 Bear Case
GBP/USD is pinned at 1.3583 with volatility at a 12-month low as the Fed, the Bank of England and a new Chancellor's first Budget all land inside nine weeks.
French Presidential Election: Le Pen 33.4%, Bardella 2.5%
French presidential election odds put Marine Le Pen at 33.4% and Jordan Bardella at 2.5% on Polymarket. Here is what that 92.9% split actually implies.