The US government shutdown contract for October 1 still quotes 2.2% on Polymarket, three days after H.R. 6500 became law and funded the government to December 11. The bid is 1.5 cents, the spread is 1.3, and the book is bigger than everything that has ever traded through it.
Clarity Act odds sit at 12.5% on Polymarket. A cloture vote lands 15 September and only 36 Senate session days remain in 2026. Our fair value is 16.2%.
Israel next PM odds: Polymarket has Gadi Eisenkot at 48.9% before the 27 October Knesset election. Our seat-and-coalition model puts fair value at 43%.
Platinum spot is $1,764/oz. WPIC forecasts a 297koz 2026 deficit, but strip out investment flows and the physical market runs a 222koz surplus. Bull $2,400, bear $1,380.
Polymarket's Democratic Nominee 2028 market has traded $1.27bn, yet 93.5% of its resting depth sits in legs priced under 1%. What the top of the board is really worth.
Ethereum (ETH) rose 26.0% over the August 2026 calendar month, but a single 19-20 August session carried 17.5 points of it as Bitmine hit 4.89% of supply.
Tesla (TSLA) closed 31 August up 5.51% at $367.95 as Texas logged 45 Cybercabs and the Austin robotaxi geofence widened 9% for the first time in ten months.
Strait of Hormuz normalisation is priced at 28.5% on Polymarket, yet IMF PortWatch shows transits at 5 a day against a 60 barrier. Our fair value is 13%.
USD/CAD trades at 1.3886 with the Fed 137.5bp above the Bank of Canada. Our bull case is 1.4250, the bear 1.3350, and why the 1.33-1.38 consensus is wrong.
Capital.com charges no commission and no inactivity fee, yet a long gold CFD burns 5.81% of notional a year in overnight funding: 116% of the margin posted.
Natural Gas trades at $2.938/MMBtu, but EIA needs 80 Bcf a week to hit its record October storage forecast. Our bull case is $4.20, our bear case $2.10.
ActivTrades review 2026: EUR/USD quoted a median 0.8 pips against its 0.5 target, and 8 of 15 majors never hit the floor. Costs, entities, FCA record.
Morpho (MORPHO) trades at $2.55 after a 27.6% August as Base deposits pass $5bn and Morpho Blue TVL reaches $9.51bn. Live CoinGecko and DefiLlama figures.
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 60.6% to be 2026 largest IPO, yet no S-1 sits on EDGAR and SpaceX first-day bar is already $2.53tn. Fair value: 14%.
Lululemon (LULU) at $120.81 before the 3 September Q2 print: why February's tariff ruling relabelled the overhang, plus the $165 bull and $95 bear maths.
Lithium carbonate closed at 161,000 yuan a tonne on GFEX as CATL's Jianxiawo mine stayed shut, while Western lithium equities ran far ahead of the curve.
EUR/HUF trades at 364.79 after the MNB cut to 5.50%. Why 100bp of 2026 easing cost the forint just 10bp of real carry, and what takes it to 380 or 350.
GBP/USD is pinned at 1.3583 with volatility at a 12-month low as the Fed, the Bank of England and a new Chancellor's first Budget all land inside nine weeks.
French presidential election odds put Marine Le Pen at 33.4% and Jordan Bardella at 2.5% on Polymarket. Here is what that 92.9% split actually implies.
Uranium spot is $89.72/lb but the term price prints $95.50 and has not fallen once in 2026. Our year-end call: $96 base, $118 bull, $68 bear, and the trigger.
Swissquote review 2026: the FINMA-licensed Swiss bank charges 1.7 pips on EUR/USD. We price that banking premium against Saxo, Fusion Markets and IC Markets.
Robinhood (HOOD) fell 5.01% to $104.26 on 28 August 2026 as bitcoin lost $80,000. Crypto is 7.6% of revenue, so we measured the real sector beta in the move.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) climbed 52.3% in the 30 days to 30 August, hitting a record $86.71, as Trump said the CFTC is working to bring the perp venue onshore.
Gold price prediction to end-2026: spot $4,456 sits 1.4% under its 200-day after a 10% August, yet miners ran 34%. Bull $5,050, base $4,640, bear $3,960.
