97.8% Bank of Japan No-Change Odds Sit Above Fair Value
Bank of Japan no-change odds at 97.8% sit above a 94% fair value into the 30 October decision, with the policy rate at 1.25% and September core CPI at 2.1%.
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Will the Bank of Russia hold the key rate on 23 October?
Bank of Russia rate decision odds mark a 23 October hold at 80.5 cents, against a 14.00% key rate and September inflation of 6.35%, still above the 4% target.
Proposal vs Dispute: How Polymarket Resolution Works
Polymarket resolution can stay open after a 97.2-cent print. A proposal, a bond, and a possible UMA vote settle the payout rather than the last trade.
A US recession by 31 December is priced at 6.5 cents
US recession odds are 6.5 cents by 31 December 2026, above a 4% fair value, because one negative GDP quarter still does not settle the Polymarket contract.
Netanyahu Out by December: 40.5 Cents, Fair Value 32
Netanyahu out by 31 December trades at 40.5 cents. Our fair value is 32 cents, because a first coalition mandate barely fits before the contract deadline.
2028 Presidential Winner: Vance 20.5 Cents, Fair Lower
2028 presidential winner odds: JD Vance is at 20.45 cents on 18 October 2026, above a 16.2% desk fair from his 47.1% nomination price times a 34.5% party price.
Kharg Island: December Control at 7.5 Cents, Fair Lower
Kharg Island control by 31 December trades at 7.5 cents on Polymarket. Our fair value is 3.5%, because occupation is a harder test than halted exports.
2026 Balance of Power: Democrats Sweep at 62.5 Cents
Midterm balance of power odds price a Democratic sweep at 62.5 cents today. Our fair value is 59 cents, with the Senate leg still ahead of the seat math.
Fed December Decision Odds: 25bp Hike at 78.5 Cents
Fed December decision odds put a 25bp hike at 78.5 cents. Desk fair value is 70 percent: an October move would use up the one extra hike in the September dots.
Indiana Data-Center Moratorium: 16.5¢ vs Fair Value
Indiana data-center moratorium YES is 16.5 cents for a statute by 31 December 2027. County pauses do not count. Fair value sits at 11 percent, under the book.
ECB October Rate Decision: No Change at 90.5 Cents
ECB October rate decision: no change trades at 90.5 cents. Our fair value is 0.88, so the price sits slightly above fair ahead of the 29 October meeting.
Bank of England November Decision: 25bp Hike at 89.5%
Bank of England November decision: the 25bp hike trades at 89.5% into the 5 November MPC, above our 78% fair value, with the CPI print due on 21 October.
September CPI Odds: The 3.7% Bucket Sits Above Fair
September CPI odds mark the 3.7% bucket at 41.5% into Wednesday's print. The Cleveland Fed nowcast is 3.60%, and 156 past misses put fair value near 21.8%.
Serbia Parliamentary Election: Vučić at 60.5%, Fair Higher
Serbia parliamentary election odds put Vučić's list at 60.5% to win the most seats on 25 October 2026. A two-poll model places fair value higher, at 64%.
Elon Musk Tweets October Odds: The Book Has No Peak
Elon Musk tweets October odds have no peak for 9-16 October 2026. The richest YES is 10.5% on 220-239 posts, while 29 counted Friday weeks center near 218.
Will the US Invade Iran Odds: Book Trades at 15.5%
Will the US invade Iran odds are 15.5% on Polymarket for a territorial-control test through 31 Dec 2026. Strikes do not settle yes. Our fair value is 10%.
Putin Out by New Year: The 2026 Leg Trades at 3.15%
Putin out by New Year trades at 3.15% yes on the 2026 Polymarket leg. The June 2027 contract implies the same hazard, so this desk leaves the price in line.
Spain's Next PM Odds: Feijóo Leads the Book at 79.5¢
Spain's next prime minister market now prices Feijóo at 79.5 cents, above a 69% fair value drawn from Sigma Dos seats and the September CIS barometer.
US-Iran Ceasefire Priced at 71.5% Through 31 October
US-Iran ceasefire odds are 71.5% through 31 October on Polymarket. We put fair value at 78% for that leg, a straight slide rather than a break in price.
Texas Senate Odds: Talarico at 63.5% With a Month Left
Texas Senate odds put the Democratic nominee, labelled James Talarico, at 63.5% on Polymarket, with one month left before the 3 November 2026 election.
J.D. Vance at 50% in the 2028 Republican Nominee Book
J.D. Vance is priced at 50.25% for the 2028 Republican nominee on Polymarket. Displayed YES prices sum to 134.5 cents, and our fair value for him is 44%.
Oklahoma Data-Center Moratorium Price Stays In Line
Oklahoma data-center moratorium: the December 2027 price of 25.5% is in line with the file. SB 1488 never received a vote, and the May statutes are not a halt.
October AI Model: 4,942 Votes Behind a 70.9-Cent Price
October AI model prices Google at 70.9 cents to lead Arena on 31 October. The top row rests on 4,942 preliminary votes. We put fair value at 66 percent.
Fed October Decision Sits In Line With November Futures
Fed October decision no-change at 57.5% sits in line with a 58% fair value from November fed funds futures. Not the September meeting or the year count.