How a Bitcoin Above Contract Picks the Noon Candle
Bitcoin above contracts read one Binance one-minute close at noon Eastern Time, and the quote beside that strike is a separate object from the payout.
Latest by Karthik
24+ articles
4 Readings That Settle a Polymarket Weather Market
Polymarket weather markets settle on one named airport station, a METAR remark, a local hour and the bucket that contains the rounded Fahrenheit high.
Fed Rate Hike Contract Adds 7 Cents in One Session
Fed rate hike Yes added 7 cents to 82.5 cents on Polymarket in one session, before the consumer-price release and with December still the open meeting.
Who Leads the Taipei Mayor Contract on Polymarket?
Taipei mayor election odds put Chiang Wan-an at 66.5 cents. Two late-October polls we opened show support near 40 percent, and our fair value is 32 percent.
House Turnout 120 Million Falls 8 Points vs 125 Million
House turnout's 120 million contract fell 8.35 points to 85.2 cents, while the 125 million bracket rose 7.7 points, with the Clerk count still unpublished.
Did the New Zealand Election Contract Jump 39.6 Points?
New Zealand election odds show National at 98.6 cents after a 39.6-point jump, while the party vote stays near 29 percent and seats tell a different story.
Pete Hegseth Exit Contracts Sit Apart From the Cabinet Book
Pete Hegseth's December exit screen sits above this desk's 24 percent mark, and a House impeachment vote pays a different question from leaving office.
How Kalshi and Polymarket Differ on Fees, Rules and Settlement
Kalshi vs Polymarket step by step: who regulates each venue, the exact fee formulas, tick sizes, how a contract resolves and how cash gets back to a bank.
7 Steps That Settle a Fed Decision Market Contract
Fed decision markets settle on the change in the federal funds upper bound, then place that move in a 25 bp bracket once the FOMC statement is published.
Banxico Rate Decision: Hold Book Trades Below Fair
Banxico rate decision odds put an unchanged target at 71.5 cents, below an 84 percent fair value. The 25 bp cut is the rich leg on a book that is still open.
Initial Jobless Claims vs the Monthly Unemployment Print
Initial jobless claims are a weekly Labor Department filing count. The monthly rate is a separate BLS print, with its own brackets and a stated revision rule.
Do Bank of Canada and RBNZ contracts resolve alike?
Bank of Canada rate decision contracts follow the overnight target. RBNZ contracts follow the OCR. Both use a 25bp grid, and a late statement has its own rule.
The RBA cash rate contract resolves on the board target
The RBA cash rate contract resolves on the board's target change in basis points against the level in place before the meeting, including a late release.
6-point swing hits the Senate tossup slate on Polymarket
Senate tossup odds on the Senate tossup slate rose 6 points in a day, taking the Iowa-and-Kansas map to 13.5 cents while a wipeout stayed the dearest ticket.
Five-year Treasury ladders sit apart from the ten-year book
Five-year Treasury yield ladders use a short window and a restarted clock. The ten-year book still holds a year of path, so the two are different bets.
Beat contracts settle only on the first company print
Beat contract settlement follows the first company EPS print and the strike frozen at creation, including the penny test, a restatement and the payout.
6.3B Binance withdrawals halt sends hack odds up to 99%
Binance withdrawals stayed paused after the exchange sized a security incident near $6.3 billion, and the October hack contract rose to about 99 cents.
Does a US GDP growth bucket follow the advance print?
US GDP growth buckets pay the BEA advance print. A later second or third estimate can rewrite the quarter and still leave the bracket on that earlier figure.
Three different readings sit under one US PPI bucket
US PPI buckets settle on one unadjusted tenth of final demand. The index level and the seasonally adjusted monthly change are separate from that tenth.
What Moves the Monthly US Unemployment Rate Market
The US unemployment rate is priced in one-decimal buckets. See what moves a monthly U-3 contract when the latest print barely shifts and participation rises.
What moves the price of a Core PCE inflation bucket?
Core PCE bucket prices follow the nowcast, the one-decimal print and the CPI translation. We score a recurring ladder against a fair value built in the open.
What moves the price of US nonfarm payrolls buckets?
US nonfarm payrolls prices on Polymarket move with the BLS print, prior revisions, the household survey, a strike footnote, and the rung an exact tie pays.
Why US CPI Markets on Polymarket Miss the First Print
US CPI markets on Polymarket settle from the one-decimal BLS print. Myths cover a blank October cell, the prior-month fallback, and a resolved leg at 100 cents.
97.8% Bank of Japan No-Change Odds Sit Above Fair Value
Bank of Japan no-change odds at 97.8% sit above a 94% fair value into the 30 October decision, with the policy rate at 1.25% and September core CPI at 2.1%.