$16.11 is how far the headline Brent crude price falls between now and New Year's Eve if every futures contract on the board simply holds where it settled on Thursday. No ceasefire is required for that, no reopened strait, no demand scare. The front-month ICE Brent contract, November 2026, settled at $107.63 on 10 September after a $6.42 jump. The March 2027 contract settled at $91.52. ICE's own expiry calendar retires November on 30 September, December on 30 October, January on 30 November and February on 30 December, which leaves March as the front month on the last trading day of the year. Each handover steps the quoted price down a rung. So "Brent holds at $107" is not the neutral forecast it sounds like. It is a bullish call, and it needs the March contract to rally 17.6% in under sixteen weeks.
That staircase is the market showing where the shortage lives. Barrels are dearest for immediate delivery and cheaper every month after, and the steepest rung is the first: $4.91 separates November from December, with 496,032 contracts of open interest sitting in the front month. The physical assessment sits higher still. EIA's Brent spot price printed $109.51 on 9 September, $8.30 above that day's front-month settlement of $101.21. What lifted the whole structure this week was not only the strait everybody watches. It was the back door. Saudi Arabia's route around Hormuz runs by pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, and the EIA says Yanbu's August exports were down by about half from July after attacks on shipping near the Bab el-Mandeb. On Thursday the Houthis seized Mocha, a Yemeni port a short sail north of that same exit.
Key facts
- ICE Brent November 2026 settled at $107.63 on 10 September, up $6.42 (6.3%) on the day and 76.9% above the 31 December 2025 front-month settlement of $60.85 — ICE settlements via CNBC quote data, retrieved 11 September 2026
- The March 2027 contract, which becomes the front month on 31 December, settled at $91.52: a $16.11 (15.0%) roll-down from November — ICE expiry schedule and CNBC contract data, 11 September 2026
- November 2026 to December 2027 spans $29.40, a 27.3% discount across thirteen months of the curve — ICE settlements of 10 September 2026 via CNBC
- The Brent–WTI spot spread reached $12.25 on 9 September, against a 2025 average of $3.58, the widest since 1 May — EIA spot prices via FRED, author's calculation, 11 September 2026
- EIA estimates Middle East crude shut-ins averaged 6.7 million b/d in August, up from 5.0 million in July, and forecasts Brent spot at $89 in December — EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, 9 September 2026
- Saudi exports from Yanbu fell by about half in August from July, per Vortexa estimates cited by EIA — EIA STEO, 9 September 2026
- US crude exports averaged 3.94 million b/d in the four weeks to 4 September, only 6.4% above a year earlier — EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, 10 September 2026
Four expiries stand between here and New Year's Eve
Most Brent charts, ours included, show a continuous front-month series: whichever contract is nearest expiry, stitched to the next one when it leaves the board. In a flat market the stitching is invisible. In a steeply backwardated one it behaves like a trapdoor, and 2026 has already shown how far the floor can drop.
The continuous series closed at $118.35 on 31 March, the highest settlement of the year. That was the final trading day of the May 2026 contract, because ICE Brent futures expire on the last business day of the second month before delivery. The next session, with June at the front, the series closed at $101.16. The continuous data alone cannot split that $17.19 gap between news and the handover. The size of it is the tell. The year's closing high belongs to a contract in its last hours of life, and anyone anchoring a forecast to it is anchoring to an expiry print.
Here is the board as it settled on Thursday, with WTI alongside for the same delivery months. Live levels sit on our Brent crude hub.
| Contract | Brent settle, 10 Sep | Below Brent front month | Brent last trading day | WTI settle, same month | Brent premium to WTI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | $107.63 | n/a | 30 Sep 2026 | $98.40 | $9.23 |
| Dec 2026 | $102.72 | $4.91 | 30 Oct 2026 | $93.93 | $8.79 |
| Jan 2027 | $98.36 | $9.27 | 30 Nov 2026 | $90.02 | $8.34 |
| Feb 2027 | $94.61 | $13.02 | 30 Dec 2026 | $86.64 | $7.97 |
| Mar 2027 | $91.52 | $16.11 | 29 Jan 2027 | $83.76 | $7.76 |
| Jun 2027 | $84.54 | $23.09 | 30 Apr 2027 | $77.36 | $7.18 |
| Dec 2027 | $78.23 | $29.40 | 29 Oct 2027 | $72.12 | $6.11 |
Sources: ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI settlements of 10 September 2026 via CNBC quote data; last trading days from ICE's published Brent expiry schedule. Both retrieved 11 September 2026.
Read the table as a price list for time. A refiner who needs a cargo in November pays $4.91 more than one who can wait until December. A trader holding crude in a tank is paid that spread for giving it up now, which is exactly the point: the structure exists to pull barrels out of storage and into the market. The EIA estimates global inventories have fallen by about 400 million barrels so far this year. A curve this steep is the price of that draw.
The right-hand column tells a second story. The Brent premium over WTI is widest at the front and shrinks steadily out the curve, from $9.23 in November to $6.11 in December 2027. Traders are paying for scarcity in waterborne, non-American crude now, and they expect it to ease. Both halves of that expectation matter for a year-end number, which is why the rest of this piece looks at where the premium comes from.
The Red Sea was supposed to be the escape hatch
Before this war, the standard answer to a Hormuz closure was a pipeline. The EIA's June 2025 assessment of the strait describes Saudi Aramco's East-West line, 5 million b/d of capacity running from the Abqaiq processing centre to Yanbu on the Red Sea, temporarily expanded to 7.0 million b/d in 2019 when gas-liquids lines were converted to crude. The agency estimated about 2.6 million b/d of Saudi and Emirati pipeline capacity could be switched on to bypass the strait in a disruption. Saudi Arabia alone supplied 38% of Hormuz crude flows in 2024, or 5.5 million b/d, according to the same EIA note.
That plan assumed the other end of the pipe stayed open. It has not. The September STEO says attacks on Saudi exports through the Bab el-Mandeb cut shipments from Yanbu, with August volumes down by about half from July on Vortexa's estimates. Saudi Arabia has sent more oil north through the Suez Canal instead, which the EIA calls a longer and costlier route for customers in Asia, and has reportedly started ship-to-ship transfers outside the Gulf. The agency's verdict is blunt: the constrained Red Sea channel will limit Saudi supply in the near term.
Then came Thursday. Al Jazeera, carrying AP and Reuters reporting, said the Houthis seized control of Yemen's port of Mocha on 10 September, while Iran said it had attacked 10 ships near Hormuz a day earlier after the US struck five Iranian oil tankers. Brent futures touched $109.20 during the session. John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in comments carried in that report: "The recent run-up in prices lays bare the market's approach: this conflict will last longer than anticipated even a month ago, let alone at the beginning of the summer."
Why does this land on Brent harder than on WTI? Geography. A Saudi barrel pushed through Suez comes out in the Mediterranean, inside the Atlantic basin where Brent-linked grades are priced. An Asian refiner that loses Gulf supply goes shopping for North Sea, West African and US cargoes. Most of those cargoes are priced against Brent. The strait itself is covered in our Strait of Hormuz odds analysis and the diplomatic track in our Iran blockade odds piece. The point here is narrower. The bypass that was meant to cap Brent's upside is now part of the problem.
Why WTI cannot close a $12 gap
On the EIA's spot assessments, Brent traded $12.25 above WTI on 9 September. The 2025 average was $3.58 and the 2024 average $3.93. The spread last printed that wide on 1 May, during the spring spike, and before this year you have to go back to July 2022 to find it. Futures show a smaller but still unusual gap: $9.23 for November delivery on both benchmarks.
A spread that wide should be self-correcting. American crude is the Atlantic basin's swing supply, and a $9-to-$12 discount ought to empty Gulf Coast tanks onto export tankers. The weekly data says that is happening only at the margin. US crude exports averaged 3.94 million b/d over the four weeks to 4 September, up 6.4% on a year earlier, and the latest single week fell to 3.42 million b/d from 4.48 million.
The crude is going somewhere else: into American refineries. Crude inputs ran at 17.59 million b/d in the week to 4 September, 768,000 b/d more than a year ago, and refined-product exports averaged 7.98 million b/d over four weeks, up 14.5%. The US is shipping its share of the Brent premium abroad as diesel and gasoline rather than as crude, a margin story our diesel price prediction works through in detail. Commercial crude stocks, at 424.1 million barrels, are almost exactly where they were a year ago. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, at 285.4 million, is 29.6% lower.
For a Brent forecast that matters in one specific way. The domestic US picture, which our news desk covered when WTI climbed 21% to $91 as US strikes on Iran resumed, is comfortable on crude and tight on products. The scarcity is offshore. WTI can follow Brent up; it cannot pull Brent down while refiners keep the barrels at home.
EIA and the futures curve agree, and that is the risk
The EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook was released on 9 September but its forecast was completed on 3 September, when the agency's own Brent spot assessment stood at $100.52. It projects Brent spot at $93 in September, $92 in October, $91 in November and $89 in December, averaging about $90 in the second half, then $77 in the second quarter of 2027 and $67 in the second half of that year. Six sessions after the forecast was locked, spot was $109.51.
Stale forecasts are normal in a war. The more interesting fact is the agreement. The February 2027 Brent contract, front month until 30 December, settled at $94.61; March at $91.52. The EIA says $89 for December. Two forecasters that look independent land within a few dollars of each other because they share one assumption: that Middle East flows recover gradually through the fourth quarter.
The EIA is explicit about that assumption and about what sits under it. It expects shut-ins to average 5.7 million b/d in the fourth quarter, down from 6.7 million in August but still enormous. It estimates global stocks drew 3.9 million b/d in the second quarter and will draw 3.0 million in the third and 1.7 million in the fourth. OPEC liquids output is forecast at 23.6 million b/d this year against 29.3 million in 2025, which means most of the world's spare capacity sits behind the very chokepoints that are closed. The producers with idle wells cannot reach the market.
Put those together and the year-end consensus asks for something unusual: a front-month price that falls about $16 while inventories are still being drained at 1.7 million b/d. Backwardation eases when stocks stop falling. On the EIA's own numbers, they will still be falling on 31 December. That is the gap our call is built on.
The call: $96 base, $125 bull, $80 bear by 31 December
The target is the front-month ICE Brent settlement on 31 December 2026, which will be the March 2027 contract. At 07:55 BST on 11 September, November Brent traded at $105.95, down $1.68 from Thursday's settlement, with March at $90.00.
Base case, $96 (50%). March 2027 grinds up from $91.52 to about $96 as fourth-quarter draws continue and the Red Sea exit stays contested. The headline still falls 9.4% from $105.95, almost entirely because of the roll. Range $90 to $104.
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Bull case, $125 (25%). The Bab el-Mandeb closes to Saudi cargoes in practice, not just on the risk map, while Hormuz stays near its current trickle. That needs March to rally 36.6% from Thursday's settle, and puts the headline 18.0% above today's price, roughly back to the 30 April intraday high of $126.41. For scale, Polymarket's crude record market prices a 15% chance that front-month WTI breaks its $147.27 record by 31 December. Links to Polymarket are affiliate links, from which The Traders Spread may earn a commission at no cost to you.
Bear case, $80 (25%). A durable ceasefire lifts both blockades and shipping insurers return. March falls 12.6% to $80, the headline 24.5%. The curve already names the price of normalisation: September 2027 Brent settled at $80.36, and the front month closed at $79.36 on 4 August, before this round of strikes.
Weighted, that is $99.25, or $7.73 above where the March contract settled on Thursday. Our lean is against the headline number, not against the tightness.
What would change my mind. A November-December spread below $1.50 into the 30 September expiry would say physical buyers have stopped paying for immediacy, and would push weight to the bear case. A March 2027 settlement above $100 would mean the curve itself is repricing a longer war, and would move weight to the bull case. Recovering Yanbu loadings, or an October STEO (due 6 October) that cuts its shut-in estimate below 5 million b/d, would lower the base. A front-month settlement above $118, the 2026 closing high, invalidates the base case outright.
Brent crude FAQ
What is the Brent crude price prediction for the end of 2026?
Our base case is $96 a barrel for the front-month ICE Brent settlement on 31 December 2026, with a 50% weight. The bull case is $125 at 25% and the bear case $80 at 25%. The front month on that date will be the March 2027 contract, which settled at $91.52 on 10 September, so the base case sits above the futures curve but below today's headline price of about $106.
Why does the Brent price drop when a futures contract rolls?
The quoted Brent price is usually the nearest futures contract. When that contract expires, the quote switches to the next month. In a backwardated market the next month is cheaper, so the headline steps down even if nothing else changes. On 10 September the November-to-December step was $4.91, and four such steps before year-end add up to $16.11. See rollover in our glossary.
Why is Brent so much more expensive than WTI right now?
Brent prices waterborne crude in the Atlantic basin, which is where Asian and European buyers turn when Gulf supply is cut. The Red Sea bypass for Saudi crude has also been disrupted. US crude is plentiful at home, with commercial stocks flat on the year, but American refiners are keeping more of it and exporting products instead. EIA spot data put the gap at $12.25 on 9 September.
What does the EIA forecast for Brent?
The September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on 9 September, forecasts Brent spot at $93 in September, falling to $89 in December, an average of about $90 for the second half of 2026 and $74 for 2027. The forecast was completed on 3 September, when EIA's Brent spot price was $100.52. Spot reached $109.51 six sessions later.
What would push Brent back above $120?
A loss of the Red Sea route for Saudi exports on top of the Hormuz restrictions, with no recovery in Gulf output. That combination would remove the main bypass the EIA counted on, keep shut-ins near the August level of 6.7 million b/d and extend inventory draws into 2027. On the curve, the signal would be the March 2027 contract settling above $100.
Disclaimer
This article is market analysis for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to trade any instrument. Oil futures and CFDs on crude are volatile and leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial capital. Scenario probabilities are our estimates and can be wrong. Past price behaviour does not predict future results.