Tungsten, in the domestic Chinese market that smelters actually settle, is 490,000 yuan a tonne of ammonium paratungstate on 14 October 2026. China Tungsten Online printed that APT figure the same afternoon, with the drawdown attached: 67.8% below the peak in its own file, and 26.9% below the 4 January print of 670,000 yuan. The same note put 65% wolframite concentrate at 315,000 yuan a standard tonne, 70.0% under its peak, and 65% scheelite at 314,000 yuan, 70.1% under. This is the salt powder plants take in, not a futures screen. The March high in that daily file was 1,520,000 yuan a tonne on 12 March, and the same 1,520,000 printed again on 13 March and 16 March. Spot has given back a little over a million yuan in seven months. Ganzhou's October guide and Zhangyuan Tungsten's first-half October posted price both still say 550,000.
Read the European line on that same page and the gap stops looking like a unit quirk. European APT on 14 October was $2,500 to $2,900 per metric tonne unit, converted by China Tungsten Online to 1.34 million to 1.72 million yuan a tonne. The middle of that band is a little over three times the domestic 490,000. Europe is 14.0% under its peak and 193.5% up since January. Domestic APT is down on both counts. The split runs through a licence. On 4 February 2025 the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs put ammonium paratungstate, tungsten oxide and certain tungsten carbide on the dual-use list, effective that day. Fastmarkets' CIF Rotterdam assessment was $2,700 to $2,900 per metric tonne unit on 2 October, 355% above the $580 to $615 of 3 October 2025.
Key facts
- Domestic APT is 490,000 yuan a tonne, 67.8% under its peak and 26.9% under the 4 January print — China Tungsten Online, 14 October 2026.
- European APT is $2,500 to $2,900 per metric tonne unit, converted by that publisher to 1.34 million to 1.72 million yuan a tonne, 14.0% under its peak and 193.5% higher since the start of 2026 — China Tungsten Online, 14 October 2026.
- 65% wolframite concentrate is 315,000 yuan a standard tonne, 70.0% under its peak and 31.5% under January — China Tungsten Online, 14 October 2026.
- Zhangyuan Tungsten's first-half October posted price for national-standard grade-zero APT is 550,000 yuan a tonne, down 30,000 yuan, or 5.17%, from its second-half September posting — China Tungsten Online, 8 October 2026.
- Ganzhou Tungsten Association's October guide for APT is 550,000 yuan a tonne, down 50,000 yuan, or 8.33%, from the September guide — China Tungsten Online, 8 October 2026.
- China's APT exports in January to August 2026 were 22.80 tonnes, down 89.27% from a year earlier — China Tungsten Online, compiling General Administration of Customs data, 21 September 2026.
- Fastmarkets' delivered China APT assessment was 540,000 to 560,000 yuan a tonne on 30 September, down 9.83% from the 600,000 to 620,000 range at its 5 August 2026 launch — Fastmarkets, published 9 October 2026.
Two prices, one salt
A metric tonne unit is 10 kilograms of contained tungsten trioxide. That is the denominator on the European quote, in dollars. The domestic quote is yuan per tonne of APT, the salt. Fastmarkets specifies both assessments at a minimum 88.5% WO3. They are not the same unit, and this piece does not invent an exchange rate. The only yuan figure used for Europe is the conversion China Tungsten Online printed beside the dollar range.
On 4 January that publisher had domestic APT at 670,000 yuan a tonne and European APT at $825 to $900 per metric tonne unit. Domestic is down a bit more than a quarter. Europe, on the publisher's 193.5% year-to-date figure, has roughly tripled. Between the two dates sits Announcement No. 10. The tungsten goods it names are ammonium paratungstate, reference customs code 2841801000, tungsten oxide, and tungsten carbide not already controlled under a separate item. Exporters apply to the commerce ministry for a licence. Some high-specification tungsten metal is on the same list. It took effect on publication day.
The export tape since then looks like a blocked intermediate, not a closed industry. In the January-to-August customs compilation China Tungsten Online published on 21 September, APT exports were 22.80 tonnes, down 89.27% year on year. Tungsten trioxide was 302.80 tonnes, down 59.68%. The wider basket, all tungsten products except carbide tools and halogen lamps, was 8,063.74 tonnes, down 25.01% by volume, and the export value of that basket was 10.462 billion yuan, up 208.84%. Tungsten oxides and hydroxides not specified elsewhere went the other way: 800.00 tonnes, up 188.01%. Less APT left. The basket that did leave earned far more.
Dominic Heaton, chief executive of Cove Kaz Capital Group, put the gap in political terms in a September interview Fastmarkets published on 9 October. "We expect the bifurcation between China and the West to remain, on a geopolitical basis." He also said he sees China moving further downstream. The customs mix is what that looks like in tonnes: the licensed intermediate has almost stopped leaving, and the value of the basket has not.
A domestic Chinese quote that does not travel cleanly into the export quote has to be read on its own. Our antimony price prediction is a different metal. It is not a proxy for APT.
Guides that spot has already cut through
Spot is 490,000 yuan. The October guides are not.
On 8 October China Tungsten Online carried Zhangyuan Tungsten's first-half October posted price, with 13% VAT included. National-standard grade-zero APT was 550,000 yuan a tonne, 30,000 yuan under the second-half September posting, a 5.17% cut, so the prior posting was 580,000. The 55% wolframite price was 365,000 yuan a standard tonne, down 8.75%, and 55% scheelite was 364,000, down 8.77%. The note used concentrate wording on the APT line. The APT price is per tonne of the salt.
The same afternoon the Ganzhou Tungsten Association's October guide was also APT at 550,000 yuan a tonne, 50,000 under the September guide, an 8.33% cut, so September's guide was 600,000. Its 55% wolframite guide was 365,000 yuan a standard tonne, down 48,000, or 11.62%. Those are posted prices, not spot. The 65% wolframite spot print of 315,000 is a different grade and is not subtracted from them.
Fastmarkets' delivered-China assessment was already 540,000 to 560,000 yuan a tonne on 30 September, down 4.35% on the week from 565,000 to 585,000, and down 9.83% from 600,000 to 620,000 on 5 August, the day that series launched. China Tungsten Online's 29 September note had APT offered in the same 540,000 to 560,000 band. Spot on 14 October is 60,000 yuan under both October anchors. The guides described a level the daily print has left.
The same 14 October box is weak past the salt. Powder was 780 yuan a kilogram, 67.5% under its peak. Carbide powder was 750 yuan a kilogram, 68.0% under. Ferrotungsten, 70% grade, was 530,000 yuan a tonne, 62.7% under.
China Tungsten Online's 14 October note also put cobalt powder at 350 yuan a kilogram, 39.7% under the year's high and 32.7% under January. Different metal, same sheet. It is covered separately in the cobalt price forecast.
What the daily file actually did
The chart is the post-May window, not the whole year. China Tungsten Online's notes gave 125 dated APT observations from 4 January to 14 October 2026. A 1,520,000 peak would pin three scenario lines, only 40,000 to 80,000 yuan apart, to the floor of the scale. The line drawn here starts on 12 May at 970,000, the day the publisher headlined a break back under 1,000,000. That is 59 observations. A range is plotted as the middle of a tight band. Guides stay off the line and in the table.
Inside that window the path is a fall, a failed bounce, then a grind. From 970,000 on 12 May the print was 680,000 by 19 May. It touched 680,000 again on 1 June, ran to 800,000, and held that on 10, 11, 12 and 15 June. July gave it back: 720,000 on 1 July, 600,000 on 14 and 15 July. August is thin in the file. Four notes, on 4, 11, 13 and 17 August, each printed 610,000.
September opened at 595,000 on the 1st and printed 595,000 again on the 15th. On 3 September and on 7 September the commentary described about 595,000 yuan a tonne as near a cost line. That wording did not survive October. The 29 September note offered APT at 540,000 to 560,000, and the chart uses the middle, 550,000. October then stepped down through range middles: 525,000 on the 9th, 515,000 on the 10th, 505,000 on the 12th, 495,000 on the 13th, the middle of a 480,000 to 510,000 range, and a point print of 490,000 on the 14th. No day-to-day jump in the merged file exceeds 12%.
| Date | What was printed | Level |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2026 | Domestic APT, China Tungsten Online | 670,000 yuan/t |
| 12 Mar 2026 | Domestic APT, also 13 and 16 Mar | 1,520,000 yuan/t |
| 12 May 2026 | Back under 1,000,000 yuan | 970,000 yuan/t |
| 10–15 Jun 2026 | Domestic APT | 800,000 yuan/t |
| 17 Aug 2026 | Domestic APT | 610,000 yuan/t |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Offered range; chart uses the middle | 540,000–560,000 yuan/t |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Fastmarkets, delivered China | 540,000–560,000 yuan/t |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Fastmarkets, CIF Rotterdam | $2,700–$2,900/mtu |
| 8 Oct 2026 | Zhangyuan posting and Ganzhou guide | 550,000 yuan/t |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Domestic APT | 490,000 yuan/t |
| 14 Oct 2026 | European APT, same publisher | $2,500–$2,900/mtu |
The 14 October note is blunt. Some holders were selling to raise cash, plants were delaying orders, and the publisher called that a negative loop. A bottom, it said, had not been established. Higher energy costs lift mining and smelting expenses, while a slower economy would hit carbide demand. Coal is a different market, covered in the API2 coal prediction. These notes never turn a coal price into yuan per tonne of APT.
Why 595,000 was not a floor
A round number that a publisher calls a cost line is a hypothesis, and this one failed. On 3 September China Tungsten Online described APT as hovering near a 595,000 yuan cost line. On 7 September the same desk had it deadlocked near that line. The 14 October point is 490,000, which is 105,000 yuan under the phrase. Treating 490,000 as the new hard floor repeats September with a fresh label. The bear case below is the size of another leg. It is not a cash cost. No smelter cost survey is cited, because none was in the sources used here.
The quota does not supply a floor either. By 17 August, China Tungsten Online reported, the Ministry of Natural Resources had issued the second batch of the 2026 tungsten mining quota and had not posted a national total. Heilongjiang's second batch, in a provincial notice dated 11 August, was 200 tonnes for the Yangbishan mine, after a first batch of 100 tonnes. That is too small to explain a move from 1,520,000 to 490,000, and it was already public while APT was still 610,000. The 14 October note describes the fall as holders selling and plants waiting. That can stop. It had not stopped on the day of the print.
Western project maths sits on the other price, and it was not drawn at today's export level. Pini Althaus, chairman and chief executive of Cove Capital LLC and executive chairman of Cove Kaz Capital Group, told Fastmarkets the assumptions from October 2024 were a "very optimistic view" of APT at $450 to $600 per metric tonne unit. "While we'd like to take advantage and we hope that tungsten prices are high when we come into production, it's not something that's going to affect the economic viability or the ability to bring this project into production." Heaton said first-mine commissioning is aimed at the end of 2030, and Fastmarkets reported the APT refinery targeted for the end of 2031. A cost the company puts under $100 per metric tonne unit is factored from a previous study, not a finished definitive one. The piece also reported a letter of interest for up to $900 million from the US Export-Import Bank and up to $700 million from the US International Development Finance Corporation.
A project on a $450 to $600 deck, with APT aimed at the next decade, does not deliver metal into this quarter's Chinese spot market. A further slide in the domestic print does not, on Althaus's account, decide whether it is built. Export APT can stay high, and the yuan price can keep falling, past 31 December.
The call into 31 December
The benchmark is China Tungsten Online's domestic APT price, in yuan per tonne. The live print is 490,000 on 14 October 2026. The horizon is 31 December 2026. The three cases are a desk weighting, not a model: 40% bear, 35% base, 25% bull. The lean is lower. Conviction is moderate, because the direction of the last two weeks is plain and the stopping point is not.
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The bear case is 420,000 yuan a tonne. From the 29 September middle of 550,000 to the 14 October point is 60,000 yuan. Another step of about 70,000 yuan, a little larger than that drop, is 420,000. Zhangyuan has already cut APT by 30,000 and Ganzhou by 50,000. One more cut of that size, with spot still under the guide, gets there. It needs holders still selling and the next half-month posting moving down. That case carries the highest weight here.
The base case is 470,000. On 13 October the quoted range was already 480,000 to 510,000. Finishing 10,000 yuan under that floor, and 20,000 under the 14 October point, is a drift. Selling of the sort the publisher described cools, and the fourth-quarter restocking it said people still hoped for does not quite arrive. The 550,000 guides stay on the wall. Spot does not go back to them, and it does not fall another full leg.
The bull case is 550,000, the Zhangyuan posted price and the Ganzhou guide, not a new round number. It requires the daily print to reverse the entire loss since 29 September, which means the restocking bid actually shows up and a bottom holds. The bear weighting comes off if the file retakes 550,000 and stays there. Until that print exists, 550,000 is a posted price spot has already rejected. The path weighted here runs through 470,000 toward 420,000.
Frequently asked questions
What is the tungsten price prediction into 31 December 2026?
Domestic Chinese APT, the benchmark used here, is 490,000 yuan a tonne on 14 October 2026. This desk's bear case is 420,000, the base case is 470,000, and the bull case is 550,000, weighted 40%, 35% and 25%. The bull figure is the October posted price from Zhangyuan and the Ganzhou guide. The bear figure is another step of about 70,000 yuan, a bit larger than the drop since 29 September.
Why is Chinese APT in yuan per tonne and European APT in dollars per metric tonne unit?
A metric tonne unit is 10 kilograms of contained tungsten trioxide, which is how the European quote is built. The Chinese domestic quote is yuan per tonne of APT, the salt. Fastmarkets uses a minimum 88.5% WO3 for both, and they still do not share a denominator. This article uses China Tungsten Online's own conversion of the 14 October European range, 1.34 million to 1.72 million yuan a tonne, and does not add a second exchange-rate bridge.
What did China's February 2025 tungsten export controls cover?
Announcement No. 10 of 2025, from the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs, took effect on 4 February 2025. For tungsten it names ammonium paratungstate, tungsten oxide and certain tungsten carbide, plus some high-specification tungsten metal and the technology to produce the listed items. Exporters need a licence. It is a control on those goods, not a ban announced as a zero quota, and it does not set the domestic price by itself.
How far is tungsten spot from the October guide prices?
Both the Ganzhou October guide and Zhangyuan's first-half October posted price are 550,000 yuan a tonne of APT. The 14 October spot print is 490,000, which is 60,000 yuan under those anchors, 10.9% below 550,000. Fastmarkets' delivered-China assessment on 30 September was still 540,000 to 560,000. The guides had not been revised down to the spot print in the sources dated through 14 October.
What would push the price to 420,000 or back to 550,000?
A print at 420,000 would look like the last leg again: holders still selling, plants still delaying orders, and another guide cut on the scale of the 30,000 to 50,000 yuan posted in early October. A return to 550,000 needs the daily file to take back the whole fall since 29 September. The weighting favours the lower path until that higher print exists.
Is 420,000 yuan a cost floor for APT?
No. In early September China Tungsten Online described about 595,000 yuan a tonne as near a cost line, and the 14 October print is 105,000 yuan under that phrase. The 420,000 bear case is the size of another down-leg, measured off the drop from 550,000 to 490,000. No cash-cost survey is cited for it. Treating the latest low as a floor is how the September line was wrong.
This is analysis for traders, not a solicitation to trade and not advice. Scenarios can be wrong, and money staked on a price can be lost. The figures are levels on a named APT benchmark, with the source and the date beside them.