Binance said on 30 October that Binance withdrawals remained paused after a security incident the exchange sized at about $6.3 billion, with about $3 billion frozen on-chain and losses assigned to the SAFU fund and company money. Deposits, suspended at 00:13 UTC, were described as normal again at 04:36 UTC, while withdrawals stayed paused for a revamp expected within 48 hours.
The dollar estimate and the contract are on different clocks. An impact around $6.3 billion clears the hack book's $100 million line many times over, and the October price rose 92.85 cents on the day, from about 6.5 cents to 99.35 cents, in the gamma record updated at 06:52 UTC. The Rekt leaderboard, the primary source in the rules, omitted Binance that morning. Links to Polymarket are affiliate links, from which The Traders Spread may earn a commission at no cost to you. The price sits on the October and December hack contracts.
Overnight, from the pause to the dollar figure
At 00:13 UTC on 30 October Binance said it would cover all losses and suspended deposits and withdrawals, after a pause note at 22:33 UTC on 29 October. At 02:25 UTC it pointed to a compromised DevOps engineer's laptop and unauthorized withdrawal transactions, and said investigators had found no evidence of a wallet private-key leak. At 04:36 UTC deposits were running as usual and withdrawals stayed paused.
That $6.3 billion post at 02:25 UTC is what a contract for any exploit of at least $100 million is now pricing.
Binance's initial investigation suggests that the security incident may involve a compromised DevOps engineer’s laptop, which allowed an attacker to gain access to a service container and submit unauthorized withdrawal transactions. We have found no evidence of any wallet private… pic.twitter.com/5REncAI77y
— Binance (@binance) October 30, 2026
Where 99 cents meets a 97 percent reading
The October leg was still open at 06:52 UTC, accepting orders, with an empty resolution-status list and a last trade at 99.9 cents. No proposal had been posted yet, and the path from a proposal to a payout is the one in how Polymarket resolution works.
December, updated at 06:54 UTC, was 99.95 cents after a one-day rise of 61.95 cents, and it was still open. The October question ends at 03:59 UTC on 1 November, and the rules can keep the market open up to seven further days if the source is still unchanged.
RelatedWhat Moves the Monthly US Unemployment Rate Market
The desk reading is 97 percent, under the 99.35 cent price, so the market sits above that fair value. Binance describes a security incident and unauthorized withdrawals, with user funds safe, while the contract asks for an exploit or a hack and names Rekt first. A high open price beside a finished payout is the split in why US CPI markets miss the first print.
| Contract | Yes price | One-day change | Volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| By 31 October | 99.35 cents | +92.85 cents | $26,665.67 | $3,052.59 |
| By 31 December | 99.95 cents | +61.95 cents | $5,270.33 | $4,705.63 |
Key facts
- Binance sized the impact near $6.3 billion and the on-chain freeze near $3 billion, and assigned losses to SAFU and company funds. Source: @binance, 02:25 UTC, 30 October 2026.
- Withdrawals were still paused at 04:36 UTC, deposits were described as normal, and a restart was expected within 48 hours. Source: @binance, 30 October 2026.
- The October price was 99.35 cents, up 92.85 cents on the day, on $26,665.67 of volume and $3,052.59 of liquidity. Source: Polymarket gamma API, 06:52 UTC, 30 October 2026.
- The December price was 99.95 cents, up 61.95 cents on the day, on $5,270.33 of volume and $4,705.63 of liquidity. Source: Polymarket gamma API, 06:54 UTC, 30 October 2026.
- Rekt's top lines were $14.8 billion in 2020 and $1.44 billion for Bybit in 2025, and the opened page had no Binance entry. Source: Rekt News leaderboard, 30 October 2026.
What to watch
- A Binance line on Rekt, or another reporting consensus the rules allow, is the source update due before 03:59 UTC on 1 November.
- The 48-hour restart named at 04:36 UTC is the next test of the withdrawal halt.
- An empty resolution-status list at 06:52 UTC means a proposal would start the challenge clock.
- An updated proof of reserves, which Binance said would follow remediation, is the follow-up to the SAFU pledge.
Figures above are a record of public posts and an open contract, with no instruction to buy, sell or hold any position. Prediction-market contracts can be lost in full. Prices are Polymarket gamma at 06:52 and 06:54 UTC on 30 October 2026, and incident figures are @binance posts from 29 and 30 October 2026.