CAD/CHF starts from the Bank of Canada's 2 September 2026 opening statement, where Governor Tiff Macklem said the Governing Council had decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.25 percent. One Canadian dollar bought 0.59088 Swiss francs in the ECB reference rate carried by Frankfurter for 27 October 2026, retrieved on the morning of 28 October. That fix is the highest daily print of 2026.
| Reference date | CHF per 1 CAD | What the print marks |
|---|---|---|
| 4 April 2024 | 0.67199 | High of the sample from 2 January 2024 |
| 3 March 2025 | 0.62421 | Last fix at or above 0.62 |
| 11 June 2025 | 0.60107 | Last fix at or above 0.60 |
| 14 November 2025 | 0.56243 | Low of the sample |
| 31 December 2025 | 0.57894 | Prior year-end fix |
| 27 January 2026 | 0.56368 | Low of 2026 |
| 2 September 2026 | 0.58454 | Day of the Bank of Canada hold |
| 24 September 2026 | 0.58634 | Day of the SNB hold |
| 27 October 2026 | 0.59088 | Latest reference, and the 2026 high |
Every row is an ECB reference rate from Frankfurter, read on 28 October 2026. The quote is Swiss francs per one Canadian dollar.
The table looks like a Canadian recovery. The dollar crosses say the recovery was a cheaper franc. On 14 November 2025, the day of the 0.56243 low, Frankfurter showed 1.402 Canadian dollars per US dollar and 0.78855 francs per US dollar. On 27 October 2026 those fixes were 1.4023 and 0.82861. The Canadian dollar is essentially flat against the US dollar, a change of about 0.02 percent. The franc is about 5.1 percent cheaper against the dollar, and CAD/CHF is up about 5.1 percent from that low, the same move counted in two pairs. From the 2 September hold to 27 October, USD/CAD rose from 1.3925 to 1.4023 while USD/CHF rose from 0.81396 to 0.82861, and CAD/CHF still climbed from 0.58454 to 0.59088.
The base case uses the Canadian path, not a change in the Swiss sight-deposit rate. Martin Schlegel, chairman of the governing board of the Swiss National Bank, told the 24 September news conference in Berne that the policy rate stays at 0 percent, that sight deposits are remunerated at that rate up to a threshold, and that the discount above the threshold stays at 0.25 percentage points. The conditional inflation forecast he read out assumes that 0 percent rate over the entire horizon. The rally already in the price was a cheaper franc. The next fork is whether Ottawa adds a rate impulse Switzerland has already declined to match, or whether that franc slide stalls. Spot is the high of 2026, so a higher target has to retrieve an old level. Frankfurter last printed 0.60 or higher on 11 June 2025, at 0.60107, and last printed 0.62 or higher on 3 March 2025, at 0.62421.
From 0.59088, 0.60 is about 1.5 percent higher, 0.62 is about 4.9 percent higher, and 0.56 is about 5.2 percent lower. Year to date the cross is up about 2.1 percent from 0.57894 on 31 December 2025, and the average of the 210 reference days in 2026 is 0.5753.
A 2.25 point gap, with only one side still open
Macklem's September statement and the press release beside it set the Canadian corridor in one line. The overnight target is 2.25 percent, the Bank Rate is 2.5 percent, and the deposit rate is 2.20 percent. He tied the hold to data in line with the July forecast. Gross domestic product was up 3.3 percent in the second quarter, unemployment had edged down to 6.4 percent in July, and inflation was hovering around 3 percent on gasoline, with the ex-gasoline rate at 2.2 percent. Energy prices, he said, had increased the upside risks to inflation, while new US tariffs put the rebound at risk. Affected products were about 5 percent of exports to the United States.
| Canada | Switzerland | |
|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | Overnight target 2.25% | SNB policy rate 0% |
| Last decision | Hold, 2 September 2026 | Hold, 24 September 2026 |
| Corridor or marginal rate | Bank Rate 2.50%, deposit rate 2.20% | Sight deposits at 0% up to a threshold, then a 0.25 point discount |
| Rate still on the public page | 2.25% until the 28 October announcement | 0.00% on the SNB homepage, dated 27 October 2026 |
| Inflation cited | CPI 3.1% in September, 2.2% excluding gasoline | 0.8% in August, up from 0.6% in May |
| Path written down | Prepared to adjust, decision due 28 October with the MPR | Forecast assumes 0% across the horizon |
The Canadian corridor is from the Bank of Canada release and Macklem's opening statement of 2 September 2026. September CPI is Statistics Canada's Daily of 19 October 2026. Swiss rates, the August inflation reading and the forecast assumption are from the SNB remarks of 24 September 2026. The 0.00 percent display is the SNB homepage figure dated 27 October 2026.
Antoine Martin, vice chairman of the governing board, told that conference that key interest rates had been raised in the euro area and the United States, with inflation in many countries still above target because of energy. Petra Tschudin, a member of the governing board, put Swiss growth between 1.5 and 2 percent for 2026 and around 1.5 percent for 2027. Second-quarter GDP had been strong and flattered by chemicals and pharmaceuticals, and she still called the underlying pace solid. She also said monetary policy and the franc's recent depreciation were supporting activity.
Schlegel put the depreciation at around 3 percent on a trade-weighted basis since June, in line with wider rate differentials, and he said the SNB is willing to be active in the foreign-exchange market as necessary. Inflation went from 0.6 percent in May to 0.8 percent in August, and goods prices were positive in August for the first time since May 2024, mainly on oil products. His conditional forecast, assuming a 0 percent policy rate throughout, is 0.7 percent for 2026, 0.8 percent for 2027 and 0.8 percent for 2028, inside the 0 to 2 percent band he treats as price stability. On 27 October the SNB homepage still showed the policy rate at 0.00 percent, SARON at minus 0.06 percent for 26 October, a Confederation yield of 0.487 percent, and USD/CHF at 0.8285, beside Frankfurter's 0.82861.
A 3.1 percent headline going into 28 October
Statistics Canada's Daily for September 2026, released on 19 October, put the consumer price index up 3.1 percent from a year earlier, after 3.0 percent in August. Gasoline rose 27.8 percent year over year, faster than August's 22.8 percent. Excluding gasoline, the index rose 2.2 percent, after 2.4 percent in August. Energy rose 19.0 percent, after 15.4 percent. The ex-gasoline rate Macklem cited for July is the same 2.2 percent Statistics Canada printed for September. Headline inflation sits outside the 1 to 3 percent band. The measure that strips out gasoline sits close to the 2 percent target, which is why a further hold and a hike are both live readings of the same Canadian papers.
The Bank of Canada flagged the date on its own account on 23 October. The media advisory for 28 October still described the announcement as upcoming when it was opened on the morning of 28 October, universal time, ahead of the 09:45 Eastern release. The advisory puts the press release and the Monetary Policy Report at 09:45 Eastern, and Macklem with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers at 10:30. At the time of this reading the last published target was the 2.25 percent hold from 2 September.
🗓 Note the date
— Bank of Canada (@bankofcanada) October 23, 2026
Our next scheduled interest rate decision and release of our latest economic forecasts are on October 28. https://t.co/bElyp0QL0A#cdnecon #economy pic.twitter.com/CNDpzJykIx
What 0.62, 0.60 and 0.56 demand from the dollar pairs
The weights below are a reading of those documents and of the arithmetic that turns a CAD/CHF level back into USD/CAD and USD/CHF. On the 27 October Frankfurter fixes, USD/CAD was 1.4023 and USD/CHF was 0.82861. Dividing the second by the first produces 0.59089, against the direct CAD/CHF fix of 0.59088. Holding one dollar rate still and moving the other shows what each scenario actually asks for.
The bull case is 0.62, weighted at 30 percent. With USD/CAD held at 1.4023, that level lines up with USD/CHF near 0.869. With USD/CHF held at 0.82861, it lines up with USD/CAD near 1.336. The weight sits on a Bank of Canada increase, with Swiss sight deposits left on the September terms. September was a hold, ex-gasoline inflation is 2.2 percent, and 0.62 has been absent since 3 March 2025, which is why 30 percent is the ceiling. A franc-only slide of that size would also press the foreign-exchange line Schlegel left open.
The base case is 0.60, weighted at 45 percent, because it asks for about 1.5 percent and leaves both policy rates at the last published settings. With USD/CAD at 1.4023, 0.60 lines up with USD/CHF near 0.841. With USD/CHF at 0.82861, it lines up with USD/CAD near 1.381. The Canadian leg is still the one this base uses. The SNB forecast freezes the policy rate, and the 0.25 point discount is unchanged. The last five weeks have looked more Canadian than the rally from the low. From 24 September to 27 October, USD/CAD fell from 1.4117 to 1.4023 while USD/CHF edged from 0.82775 to 0.82861, and CAD/CHF rose from 0.58634 to 0.59088. A hold at 2.25 percent, beside a franc already about 3 percent cheaper on a trade-weighted basis, is enough for a drift toward 0.60.
The bear case is 0.56, weighted at 25 percent. With USD/CAD at 1.4023, 0.56 lines up with USD/CHF near 0.785, close to the 0.78855 fix on the day of the CAD/CHF low, which is a franc rebound. With USD/CHF at 0.82861, it lines up with USD/CAD near 1.480, a Canadian-dollar slump if the rebound Macklem described fails to last. He put the tariff-exposed slice at about 5 percent of exports to the United States. The weight is the smaller one because the rate gap is wide and Swiss inflation at 0.8 percent sits inside the 0 to 2 percent range. A daily reference through 0.56 is the invalidation of the bull reading.
An overnight target above 2.25 percent, with the Swiss discount still at 0.25 points, would shift weight from 0.60 toward 0.62. A target below 2.25 percent would retire the bull case, because Canada would be narrowing the gap. An SNB rate above zero, or a visible bid for a stronger franc, would make Berne the moving part. Reference rates under 0.56 would put the bear path in the price. Until one of those prints, the weights stay 30, 45 and 25, and conviction stays at 3. The lean is up because one side of a wide gap is frozen in a published forecast. It stays at 3 because the 2026 high was mostly a cheaper franc, and because the levels were set before the 09:45 Eastern release.
Two dollar pairs, and one other franc cross
CAD/CHF is the ratio of two pairs this desk already follows. The USD/CAD forecast is the Canadian leg against the dollar. The USD/CHF forecast is the franc leg. Since November 2025 the ratio has risen with the franc's dollar rate. Since 24 September it has risen with the Canadian dollar. The AUD/CHF forecast is the parallel: the Australian dollar shares the commodity seat and the same pinned Swiss leg, so the two crosses can diverge when Ottawa and Canberra take different paths.
RelatedEUR/TRY Price Prediction: 62.50 Bull Case vs 51.50 Bear
The entry on the bull reading is the live reference, 0.59088. The target on that side is 0.62, and the level that ends the reading is 0.56. The chart carries those three levels out to 31 March 2027. Schlegel had already named the rate in his inflation model. The Canadian forecasts were still on the 09:45 Eastern clock.
Key facts
- One Canadian dollar bought 0.59088 Swiss francs on the ECB reference rate for 27 October 2026, the highest daily fix of 2026, against a 2026 low of 0.56368 on 27 January. Source: Frankfurter, retrieved 28 October 2026.
- From the 14 November 2025 low of 0.56243, USD/CAD moved from 1.402 to 1.4023 while USD/CHF moved from 0.78855 to 0.82861, so the 5.1 percent rise in CAD/CHF matches the franc's decline against the dollar. Source: Frankfurter, 14 November 2025 and 27 October 2026.
- The Bank of Canada held the overnight target at 2.25 percent on 2 September 2026, with the Bank Rate at 2.5 percent and the deposit rate at 2.20 percent. The next announcement is set for 09:45 Eastern Time on 28 October, with the Monetary Policy Report. Source: Bank of Canada, 2 September 2026 and the 28 October media advisory.
- The SNB held its policy rate at 0 percent on 24 September 2026. Sight deposits earn that rate up to a threshold, and the discount above the threshold is 0.25 percentage points. The homepage still showed 0.00 percent on 27 October, with SARON at minus 0.06 percent on 26 October. Source: Swiss National Bank, 24 September and 27 October 2026.
- Canadian CPI rose 3.1 percent year over year in September, after 3.0 percent in August. Excluding gasoline it rose 2.2 percent, and gasoline itself rose 27.8 percent. Source: Statistics Canada, released 19 October 2026.
- Swiss inflation rose from 0.6 percent in May to 0.8 percent in August. The conditional forecast, on a 0 percent policy rate, is 0.7 percent for 2026, 0.8 percent for 2027 and 0.8 percent for 2028. The franc had depreciated by around 3 percent on a trade-weighted basis since June. Source: Martin Schlegel, Swiss National Bank, 24 September 2026.
Questions on the cross
What does the CAD/CHF quote of 0.59088 actually measure?
CAD/CHF counts the Swiss francs that exchange for one Canadian dollar, so 0.59088 is a little under 59 centimes. The print is the ECB reference rate from Frankfurter for 27 October 2026, read on 28 October 2026. The SNB's own USD/CHF display of 0.8285 that day sat about a pip from Frankfurter's 0.82861. Bull, base and bear levels use that same francs-per-dollar scale.
Why does the forward case follow the Bank of Canada at all?
The SNB has written its policy rate as 0 percent across the forecast horizon and left the sight-deposit discount at 0.25 percentage points. Schlegel also said the Bank can operate in foreign exchange while that rate stays at zero. Canada's overnight target is the rate still on a live calendar. The rally from November 2025 was a cheaper franc, with USD/CAD stuck near 1.40, so the forward question is whether Ottawa adds a step.
What would a CAD/CHF print of 0.62 require from here?
From 0.59088, 0.62 is about 4.9 percent higher, and the cross last fixed there on 3 March 2025. On the 27 October dollar rates that is USD/CHF near 0.869 with USD/CAD at 1.4023, or USD/CAD near 1.336 with USD/CHF at 0.82861. The 30 percent weight is a Bank of Canada increase that leaves the Swiss September terms in place.
Which dollar moves line up with a CAD/CHF print of 0.56?
A rate of 0.56 is about 5.2 percent under 0.59088 and a shade through the 14 November 2025 low of 0.56243. With USD/CAD at 1.4023 it lines up with USD/CHF near 0.785, close to the franc's dollar rate on the day of that low. With USD/CHF at 0.82861 it lines up with USD/CAD near 1.48. The 25 percent weight covers both, and a fix through 0.56 ends the bull reading.
How should the 30, 45 and 25 weights be read together?
The 45 percent on 0.60 keeps the overnight target at 2.25 percent and the SNB rate at 0 percent, a drift of about 1.5 percent on a gap that already exists. The 30 percent on 0.62 is a Canadian increase Switzerland leaves unmatched. The 25 percent on 0.56 is a franc rebound or a break in the recovery Macklem described. The modal path is that drift to 0.60, and the call leans bull because the open decision is Canada's.
Verdict
The verdict is a bull tilt at conviction 3: 0.62 if the Bank of Canada lifts the overnight rate while Swiss sight deposits stay on the September terms, 0.60 if Ottawa holds 2.25 percent and the existing gap does the rest, and 0.56 if the Canadian path breaks or the franc rebounds.
These levels are a scenario reading of published central-bank decisions and ECB reference rates, and they are not a solicitation to take a position in CAD/CHF or any other currency.