On the USDA afternoon sheet for Tuesday, 20 October 2026, the national negotiated carcass base for lean hogs fell to $65.94 per hundredweight. The change from the previous day was minus $3.66, on 11,325 head. Bids on that same line ran from $59.00 to $75.00.
Lean hogs, for a reader new to the livestock screen, are exchange-traded futures tied to a hog carcass rather than a live animal in a sale barn. The figure on this sheet is not a futures settlement. It is the cash price under that market: a weighted average of negotiated sales of barrows and gilts, in U.S. dollars per 100 pounds, from the Agricultural Marketing Service report LM_HG217.
The negotiated average is the loud number, and a small share of the animals. On the same report, hogs bought against a swine or pork market formula averaged $71.08 per cwt across 176,139 head, which is $5.14 above the negotiated base. Other purchase arrangements averaged $73.37 on 81,297 head. Other market formula purchases averaged $66.74 on 14,573 head, only $0.80 above the negotiated print. Most of the day's hogs did not change hands at $65.94. They moved on formulas and other arrangements that cleared higher, while the open negotiated market was the weak pocket.
Tuesday also sat under its own short average. The five-day rolling average for the national negotiated carcass was $67.19, so the day's weighted average was $1.25 below that mean. Producer-sold negotiated volume was 12,429 head, compared with 11,012 a week earlier and 14,362 a year earlier. More negotiated hogs changed hands than last Tuesday, and the average still fell. Iowa and Minnesota printed $66.03, down $3.65, and the western Corn Belt matched that $66.03. The eastern Corn Belt price was withheld. The sheet marks that blank as a confidentiality rule, not as a zero.
Key facts
- The national negotiated carcass base for lean hogs was $65.94 per cwt, down $3.66, on 11,325 head. Source: USDA AMS LM_HG217, 20 October 2026.
- Negotiated bids that day ran from $59.00 to $75.00, and the five-day rolling average was $67.19. Source: USDA AMS LM_HG217, 20 October 2026.
- Producer-sold negotiated volume was 12,429 head, versus 11,012 a week earlier and 14,362 a year earlier. Source: USDA AMS LM_HG217, 20 October 2026.
- Swine or pork market formula purchases averaged $71.08 per cwt on 176,139 head. Source: USDA AMS LM_HG217, 20 October 2026.
- The pork carcass cutout was $78.53 per cwt, down $0.86, while the belly primal was $89.67, up $2.74. Source: USDA AMS LM_PK602, 20 October 2026.
Wholesale pork on the same afternoon did not drop in step. The carcass cutout in LM_PK602, calculated as of 2:00 p.m. for a 215-pound carcass at 55 to 56 percent lean, was $78.53 per cwt, down $0.86 from Monday's $79.39. The difference between that cutout and the negotiated hog base was $12.59 per cwt. Inside the carcass the day split. The loin primal fell $2.53 to $79.82, the butt fell $2.56 to $103.08, the ham fell $1.58 to $63.69, and the rib fell $3.73 to $144.31. The picnic rose $0.72 to $64.68. The belly rose $2.74 to $89.67. The five-day average cutout was $79.09, so wholesale pork was only slightly under its own short mean. The negotiated hog price did the falling.
A ham and a loin that cheapened, beside a belly that rose, means the carcass average is a blend. It is not one demand story wearing a single number. The report listed 267.59 loads of pork cuts and 29.00 loads of trim and process pork. That wholesale tape sits beside other barns. Live cattle placements are the cattle-side supply count, published on a different USDA calendar, and they do not move because a hog bid in Iowa did.
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Feed is a separate screen. Many hog rations still price their protein off soybean meal, and Tuesday's hog sheet does not carry a meal quote. Packer-sold hogs of every purchase type were 41,380 head, against 44,921 a week ago and 35,212 a year ago. By state of origin, Iowa accounted for 114,109 head and Minnesota for 62,985. Those origin totals cover every purchase type, not the negotiated line by itself.
What to watch
Three items on the next sheets, and none of them is a price target. First, Wednesday's LM_HG217 national negotiated weighted average, and whether the low bid again reaches toward Tuesday's $59.00. Second, the primal split on the afternoon pork report: ham and loin against the belly, which rose while the carcass average fell. Third, the gap between the negotiated base and the swine or pork market formula price. On Tuesday that formula price was $71.08 on 176,139 head. If it stays well above the negotiated average, $65.94 remains the weak pocket of the daily sheet rather than the price of most hogs sold that day.