EUR/CZK is the cross behind the Czech National Bank page opened for these figures, the daily banking-sector liquidity sheet for 26 October 2026, which still prints a two-week repo rate of 3.75 percent. The same row lists a discount rate of 2.75 percent and a Lombard rate of 4.75 percent, both effective 19 June 2026. The tender that day absorbed 403.200 billion koruna at an average rate of 3.75 percent, and Lombard credit outstanding was 0.000 billion. Banks with surplus koruna are placing cash at the central bank, and the emergency lending window is idle.
The euro price of the koruna on that day's ECB reference, served by Frankfurter and matched on Frankfurter's ECB provider route, was 24.369, so one euro bought 24.369 koruna. EUR/USD on the same line was 1.1188, and dividing the two rates puts a dollar at 21.781 koruna. Across the 255 reference days from 27 October 2025, EUR/CZK went from 24.323 to 24.369, a rise of 0.19 percent, while EUR/USD went from 1.1640 to 1.1188, a fall of 3.88 percent. The dollar cross built from those two series went from 20.896 to 21.781, a rise of 4.24 percent.
The Czech National Bank's exchange-rate discussion is about the euro, not the dollar. A dollar move reaches the koruna only after it passes through EUR/USD. On 7 October 2026 the euro-dollar reference printed its low for the file at 1.1177, and implied USD/CZK printed its high at 21.855, while EUR/CZK that day was 24.427, still 0.128 koruna under the 30 March high of 24.555. The softest koruna against the dollar and the softest koruna against the euro fell on different days. The USD/CZK forecast is the dollar leg, and 21.781 today sits between the 20.40 and 22.70 in that title.
Key facts
- EUR/CZK was 24.369 koruna per euro on 26 October 2026, matched on Frankfurter's ECB provider route. Source: Frankfurter, retrieved 27 October 2026.
- EUR/USD was 1.1188 that day, so USD/CZK was 21.781 koruna per dollar by division. Source: Frankfurter ECB provider route, 26 October 2026.
- From 27 October 2025 to 26 October 2026, EUR/CZK rose 0.19 percent, EUR/USD fell 3.88 percent, and implied USD/CZK rose 4.24 percent. Source: Frankfurter v1 daily series, retrieved 27 October 2026.
- The high in that file was 24.555 on 30 March 2026 and the low was 24.083 on 26 August 2026. Source: Frankfurter v1, retrieved 27 October 2026.
- The two-week repo rate is 3.75 percent, the discount rate 2.75 percent and the Lombard rate 4.75 percent, effective 19 June 2026. Source: CNB daily banking sector liquidity, 26 October 2026.
- The Bank Board held the repo rate on 17 September 2026 by seven votes to nil, and the next meeting chooses between an unchanged rate and a higher one. Source: CNB Bank Board statement, 17 September 2026.
- Czech annual inflation was 2.5 percent in September 2026, up from 1.9 percent in August, with core inflation at 3.1 percent and fuel prices up 37.5 percent. Source: CNB comment, 13 October 2026.
Section 1: A repo rate of 3.75 percent, and the corridor around it
The two-week repo rate is the CNB's key rate. Banks offer surplus koruna for two weeks, receive securities in return, and bid a rate. The CNB's explainer says bids are filled from the lowest rate upward, and a bid above the repo rate falls outside the tender. On 26 October the minimum accepted rate was 3.74 percent, the average 3.75 percent and the maximum 3.75 percent, so the system was pressing on the ceiling. In this regime the policy rate is the rate paid to drain surplus cash.
Two other official rates frame that ceiling. The discount rate, 2.75 percent, applies to overnight deposits and usually sits one percentage point under the repo rate. The Lombard rate, 4.75 percent, is overnight borrowing against collateral and usually sits one percentage point over it. CZEONIA, the Czech overnight index, printed 3.330 percent on 23 October, inside the corridor and under the ceiling. The 26 October cell for CZEONIA was empty on the sheet.
The Board set the repo rate at 3.75 percent on 18 June 2026, a rise of 0.25 percentage point. Six members voted for the increase and one voted to leave the rate unchanged. The liquidity sheet dates the setting from 19 June. On 17 September every member voted to leave all three rates where they were. The statement says the June increase has so far produced a sufficient tightening, that longer-term market rates have tightened conditions further, and that the next meeting chooses between an unchanged rate and a higher one. Risks to the inflation target were judged inflationary overall. Year-on-year GDP growth had slowed from 2.2 percent to 1.9 percent in the second quarter of 2026, with domestic demand still the main source of growth.
The Czech National Bank's English-language account posted that 17 September decision as the three rates in the corridor, the public summary of the setting EUR/CZK is priced against.
⚖️ At its meeting today, the CNB Bank Board kept interest rates unchanged:
— Česká národní banka (@CNB_cz) September 17, 2026
2W repo rate ➡️ 3.75%
Discount rate ➡️ 2.75%
Lombard rate ➡️ 4.75%
🔗 https://t.co/1r1UPr3p6g pic.twitter.com/zAtp606a6O
Inflation is why the hike stayed on the table. In the CNB comment published on 13 October 2026, annual inflation rose from 1.9 percent in August to 2.5 percent in September, with the price level unchanged on the month and with core inflation at 3.1 percent. Fuel prices rose 37.5 percent year on year and now contribute more than one percentage point to the headline. Services prices rose 4.5 percent, and goods prices rose 0.8 percent. Jakub Matějů, Deputy Executive Director of the Monetary Department at the Czech National Bank, wrote: "We expect inflation to remain at similar levels of between 2% and 3% for the rest of the year. At the beginning of next year, it is very likely to rise temporarily above 3%." The same comment says a cut in excise duty and the fuel price caps reach the figures in October, so the 37.5 percent fuel print predates that adjustment.
On the euro side, the ECB raised its three key rates by 0.25 percentage point on 10 September 2026, effective 16 September. The deposit facility is 2.50 percent, the main refinancing rate 2.65 percent and the marginal lending facility 2.90 percent. Staff projections in that decision put headline inflation at 3.0 percent in 2026, 2.5 percent in 2027 and 2.1 percent in 2028. Subtracting 2.50 from 3.75 leaves 1.25 percentage points. The two rates are different instruments, a two-week absorption rate and an overnight deposit rate, so 1.25 is the gap between those official settings. The ECB press-conference page, opened on 27 October 2026, still showed the September rates in force, with the next decision scheduled for 14:15 CET on 29 October. A further 0.25 percentage point on the deposit facility, with the CNB repo unchanged, would leave a 1.00 percentage point gap, which still needs a cheaper koruna before EUR/CZK revisits the March high. The zloty's version of this gap is in the EUR/PLN forecast.
Section 2: The dollar arrives through EUR/USD
USD/CZK equals EUR/CZK divided by EUR/USD, which is why a quiet euro cross and a noisy dollar cross can describe the same koruna. On 30 March 2026, when EUR/CZK peaked at 24.555, EUR/USD was 1.1484 and the implied dollar cross was 21.382. On 7 October 2026, when EUR/USD bottomed at 1.1177, EUR/CZK was 24.427 and the implied dollar cross was 21.855. Between those dates the euro cross fell about 0.52 percent and the dollar cross rose about 2.21 percent. The dollar move was living in EUR/USD.
Across all 254 day-to-day percent changes in the file, the correlation between USD/CZK and EUR/USD is negative 0.95, and the square of that correlation is 0.91, rounded from 0.905. The square of the correlation between USD/CZK and EUR/CZK is 0.39, rounded from 0.395. Nine tenths of the daily variation in the dollar cross lines up with the euro-dollar move, and that figure describes the year in the file rather than the paths further down.
The same separation is the point of the published reading in which GBP/SEK trades its own rate path. EUR/CZK is that policy cross for the koruna.
| ECB reference date | EUR/CZK | EUR/USD | USD/CZK, divided |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 October 2025 | 24.323 | 1.1640 | 20.896 |
| 30 March 2026, EUR/CZK high | 24.555 | 1.1484 | 21.382 |
| 26 August 2026, EUR/CZK low | 24.083 | 1.1669 | 20.638 |
| 7 October 2026, EUR/USD low | 24.427 | 1.1177 | 21.855 |
| 26 October 2026 | 24.369 | 1.1188 | 21.781 |
Section 3: Managed float, after a floor near 27
There is no published koruna band on the CNB pages opened for these figures. The CNB monetary-policy explainer calls the regime a managed float. The exchange rate moves with supply and demand, and intervention is reserved for swings large enough to jeopardise price stability or financial stability. Interest rates are the standard instrument, and the exchange rate is the release valve described for a move that has become excessive.
The number that still clings to the pair is 27. In November 2013 the CNB committed to keep the koruna near 27 per euro and to resist strengthening through that floor, after the repo rate had been cut to technical zero. The explainer dates the end of the commitment to April 2017. Twenty-seven koruna per euro was a floor during a deflation scare. The range that belongs beside a current EUR/CZK print is the ECB file itself, 24.083 to 24.555.
A move of about 1 percent is large here, because the past year's high-to-low gap was 1.94 percent of the latest print, and both 24.55 and 24.10 sit inside that gap near its edges.
Section 4: Bull 24.55, base 24.25, bear 24.10
The base path is 24.25, about 0.119 koruna under the 24.369 print, or 0.49 percent. It is the central case because the September statement left a hold or a hike, and both of those leave the koruna at least as firm as it is. A hold keeps the 1.25 percentage point reference gap in place, and a hike widens that gap. Domestic demand was still carrying growth at 1.9 percent year on year in the second quarter, and the Monetary Department has inflation between 2 and 3 percent into year-end before a temporary rise through 3 percent. That mix fits a small drift firmer more closely than it fits a return to the March high.
The bull case of 24.55 is 0.181 koruna above the print, or 0.74 percent. Reaching it means the koruna cheapens back to the weak edge of the past year, which takes a change in the reaction the Board just described. The hike option would need to leave the statement, with easier policy in its place, or a shock would need to cheapen the koruna by more than the float leans against. One ECB step, to a 1.00 percentage point gap, remains a narrow reason for that retrace, and the koruna still has to cheapen on its own.
The bear case of 24.10 is 0.269 koruna under the print, or 1.10 percent. On 26 August, when EUR/CZK printed 24.083, EUR/USD was 1.1669 and implied USD/CZK was 20.638, so a firm koruna arrived with a firm euro. Reaching 24.10 from 24.369 with EUR/USD near 1.12 is a koruna move. The open hike, core inflation at 3.1 percent, services at 4.5 percent, and the line that inflation is very likely to rise above 3 percent early next year are what put 24.10 on the page. The level is inside a range the pair has already visited.
RelatedEUR/PLN Price Prediction: 4.58 Bull Case vs 4.22 Bear
| Path to 31 March 2027 | EUR/CZK | Versus 24.369 | What has to be in place |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 24.55 | 0.74 percent higher | The koruna cheapens toward the 30 March high, which takes the hike option off the table or a shock that overwhelms the float. |
| Base | 24.25 | 0.49 percent lower | The repo rate stays at 3.75 percent and the pair drifts inside the range already printed. |
| Bear | 24.10 | 1.10 percent lower | The September hike option is used while core inflation stays near 3.1 percent, and the koruna firms toward the August low. |
Section 5: What would change the reading
The firmer-koruna lean is retired by a print at 24.55, the bull case and the invalidation on the base path, because the hawkish hold assumes the pair stays inside the past year's weak extreme. A statement that drops the hold-or-hike choice and describes lower rates would retire the lean earlier, as would an ECB move that took the reference gap under 0.75 percentage point while the CNB repo stayed at 3.75 percent. One 0.25 point ECB step, to a 1.00 point gap, still sits with the base.
The bear case becomes the live path if the Board hikes while core inflation is still near 3.1 percent and services inflation, after the October fuel adjustment, is still near the 4.5 percent September rate. A print under 24.083 would mean 24.10 had been too shallow. Fresh Czech inflation after September, and the ECB decision set for 29 October, are the next two public facts. The levels above use only the pages already opened.
Frequently asked questions
What does the EUR/CZK quote measure?
The EUR/CZK quote is the number of Czech koruna that one euro buys. On the ECB reference for 26 October 2026 the print was 24.369, so one euro bought 24.369 koruna. A higher number is a weaker koruna against the euro, and a lower number is a firmer koruna. The Czech National Bank's exchange-rate discussion uses this cross. USD/CZK, the koruna price of a dollar, is a separate price built from this quote and from EUR/USD.
What does the koruna band refer to?
The CNB explainer calls the regime a managed float. The rate moves with supply and demand, and intervention is reserved for swings that would jeopardise price stability or financial stability. A floor near 27 koruna per euro ran from November 2013 to April 2017. The range used here is the ECB history from 24.083 on 26 August 2026 to 24.555 on 30 March 2026, a span of 0.472 koruna. The bull, base and bear cases all sit inside that span.
Why can USD/CZK move while EUR/CZK stays quiet?
USD/CZK equals EUR/CZK divided by EUR/USD, so a quiet euro-koruna rate and a falling euro-dollar rate still lift the dollar cross. From 27 October 2025 to 26 October 2026, EUR/CZK rose 0.19 percent, EUR/USD fell 3.88 percent, and implied USD/CZK rose 4.24 percent. On daily percent changes, the squared correlation of USD/CZK with EUR/USD was 0.91, against 0.39 with EUR/CZK. In that year the dollar cross was mostly a euro-dollar story.
What is the two-week repo rate?
The two-week repo rate is the CNB's key policy rate. Banks place surplus koruna at the central bank for two weeks, up to that ceiling, and receive collateral. On 26 October 2026 the average rate was 3.75 percent on 403.200 billion koruna. The discount rate of 2.75 percent is the overnight floor and the Lombard rate of 4.75 percent is the ceiling. CZEONIA printed 3.330 percent on 23 October 2026, inside the corridor.
How do 24.55 and 24.10 sit against 24.369?
The bull case of 24.55 is 0.181 koruna above the 26 October print of 24.369 and 0.005 below the 30 March 2026 high. The bear case of 24.10 is 0.269 koruna below the print and 0.017 above the 26 August 2026 low. The base of 24.25 sits 0.119 koruna under the print. A higher EUR/CZK is a weaker koruna, and a lower print is a firmer koruna. Both outer cases remain inside the past year of ECB references.
Verdict
The base is 24.25, the bull case is 24.55 and the bear case is 24.10, against an ECB reference of 24.369 on 26 October 2026. The entry is that print, the target on the base path is 24.25, and 24.55 is the invalidation. The lean is toward a slightly firmer koruna, because September left a hold or a hike, core inflation is 3.1 percent, and the reference gap to the ECB deposit facility is 1.25 percentage points. Conviction is low, a 2 on a five-point scale, because 24.25 is only 0.49 percent under the print and inside a range already crossed. The reading changes if the Board describes easier policy, if the gap narrows below 0.75 percentage point while Prague holds, if a hike arrives with core still near 3.1 percent and 24.10 becomes the live path, or if the price prints at 24.55.
Market commentary for general information, and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell the koruna, the euro, or any contract linked to either.