USD/CAD – Lifts on Oil Crash, 1.4150 Caps for Now, 1.4000-1.4300 Likely

The slump in West Texas International Oil futures pushed the Loonie down by 1.1% against the US Dollar. USD/CAD closed at 1.4135 from yesterday’s opening at 1.4010. The USD/CAD was capped overnight at 1.41368, easing to 1.4120 before trading around its New York highs. Given the plunge in WTI futures to unprecedented negative levels, USD/CAD should be higher.

livecharts USDCAD 1H Chart - 21 April 2020
livecharts USDCAD 1H Chart – 21 April 2020

The latest Commitment of Traders/CFTC report for the week ended April 14 saw total speculative CAD short bets mainly unchanged at -CAD 23,760. The net change was +CAD 673. This has seen the USD/CAD dip strongly when the Dollar had a broad-based fall against its rivals. While this may be a limiting factor for further USD/CAD topside, I don’t expect this to last long.

USD/CAD has immediate resistance at 1.4150 followed by 1.4200. Immediate support can be found at 1.4120 followed by 1.4080 and 1.4040. Look to buy USD dips with volatility to pick up in a likely range of 1.4050-1.4250. Tin helmets on, we are going for a roller coaster ride.


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