Monday was the worst day since the global financial crisis in 2008 as an oil shock and virus fears have wiped billions from the markets.
Should you buy? It might be time for some buying opportunities but caution should prevail.
A swift recovery in the oil and gas industry is hard to predict. There are a number of issues that are keeping the oil market on edge ranging from fundamental challenges to climate change crisis. The energy sector was already poised to be challenged in this new era as the increased concerns on climate change and the rise of renewables are altering the dynamics in the industry.
But, now we should expect more volatility in the oil market due to the price war initiated by Saudi Arabia to punish Russia for not committing to more production cuts.
Markets are on wait-and-see mode to monitor whether the pressure from Saudi Arabia will force Russia to go back to the negotiable table. In the meantime, a simultaneous shock to both demand and supply and the unknown length of the epidemic will defy a swift recovery.
Hence, it will be a challenging few weeks ahead as the outlook for the oil market remains weak. As of writing, Brent Crude and WTI dropped to $33 and $31 – the lowest levels seen in five years and are currently finding support around those levels.
Eventually, when prices start to stabilise, the recovery might come in incremental stages. The revised price outlook for WTI and Brent Crude will probably be around $40 and $45 – the levels they were at before the flash crash.