- Dow Jones jumps +500 pts after ADP jobs data impressed
- Asian / European shares flat on Thursday
- EUR/USD holds 1.12 before ECB Meeting
- Oil prices slip (Brent < $40) with no early OPEC+ meeting
- Gold notches biggest daily decline in a month
“The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffet
There’s a slight pause going into the ECB meeting. Stocks are taking a breather after another monster rally on Wall Street. It’s fair to say we’re looking a little exuberant with the Dow and S&P500 both up over 10% on the month.
The euro is holding onto recent highs on the hopes the ECB re-ups its stimulus. Brent and WTI crude are lower on the possibility that the Russian-Saudi agreement on output cuts might not make it over the finishing line. Gold is a little higher, having taken a drubbing amidst Wednesday’s unfettered optimism.
Markets are interpreting Lagarde’s suggestion that the Eurozone economic contraction will be “between medium and severe scenarios” as ECB-speak for more bond-buying. Anything less than an extra 500 billion euros added to the PEPP could be a disappointment.
So long as the ECB can uphold the perception that the policy toolbox isn’t empty and the EU Recovery Fund remains on track, then there’s a lot to like about the euro.
S&P 500 to open 15 points lower at 3,107
Dow Jones to open 113 points lower at 26,156
Gold has been trading between roughly 1670 and 1750 for 6-weeks. The trend remains up, but another drop below 1670 might be needed to collect new buyers.