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Euro remains depressed. Overview for 07.09.2020

September 8, 2020

EURUSD is starting the new week by a slight decline. The current quotation is 1.1828.

Today is Labor Day in the USA, which is a day-off; the statistics on the macroeconomic calendar is scarce; investors are enjoying a chance to have a rest from volatility.

The data on the labor market issued in the US on Friday turned out quite interesting. For example, the unemployment rate in August fell to 8.4% from 10.2% the month before while the forecast was 9.8%. The NFP grew by 1.371 million, almost coinciding with the expectations, after the growth by 1.734 million in July.

Average hourly wage in August grew by 0.4% (calculated per month), which is a perfect result. No change had been forecast, while the previous result was just 0.1% (per month) growth. This is a clear signal of the revival of business and the employment sector on the whole: if companies are ready to compete over labor force again, this means they have the resources for it. This is just extremely good.

The main risk is the expectation that the growth of the number of workplaces in the US economy will start slowing down because the whole capacity of the support program has been used up. This, in its turn, is a potential threat to the restoration of the US economy on the whole. It is yet unclear whether politicians will manage to agree over the new pack of financial support – the economy will need some 1 trillion of USD more, and it would be good to wait until this money comes.

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading.

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