EUR/USD – Upside Potential Limited, Cloudy Outlook Risks Lower

The Euro failed in its attempt to rally above 1.1000 last week (1.1008 Thursday) following some strong selling from speculative long Euro bets. EUR/USD retreated further towards 1.0900 with a close in New York at 1.0902 from Friday’s opening at 1.0948. The shared currency slipped to an overnight low at 1.08854 before climbing to settle at 1.0902.

LiveChartsUK EURUSD Chart -
LiveChartsUK EURUSD Chart – 25 May 2020

Germany’s IFO Business Climate and Final Q1 GDP data are released today. The Franco-German proposal for an EU Recovery Fund remains the Euro’s biggest support. Speculative long Euro bets will continue to cap the topside of the shared currency.

EUR/USD has immediate support at 1.0880 followed by 1.0850. Immediate resistance can be found at 1.0950 (1.09536 overnight high) and 1.1000. The overall range between 1.08-1.10 since early April looks likely to continue. The risk is still lower while the market’s positioning is long. Look to trade a likely 1.0870-1.0970 range today.

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