The Euro eased modestly to 1.0865 from 1.0875 yesterday. Trading was more subdued with the overnight range between 1.08411 and 1.08967. The shared currency was sidelined with more of the FX action on the commodity and resource currencies. Germany’s Finance Ministry, in its monthly report, predicted that its March Industrial Output was likely to plunge due to effects of the coronavirus on the services and retail sector.
The Commitment of Traders/CFTC report for the week ended March 14 saw net speculative Euro long bets increase by EUR 6,993 to total +EUR 86,617, the biggest number of shorts since 2018. Total net speculative long Euro bets were 80% relative to the year’s maximum. This will continue to constrain any meaningful Euro rallies.
EUR/USD has immediate resistance at 1.0890 followed by 1.0920 and 1.0950. Major resistance can be found at 1.1000. Immediate support lies at 1.0840 (overnight low 1.08411). This is followed by 1.0810 and 1.0780. Look to sell rallies in a likely 1.0780-1.0900 range today.