The Euro recovered from Friday’s overnight and April 7 low at 1.08121 to finish at 1.0875 in late New York Friday. Earlier this week, the EUR/USD rally stalled near the 1.10 level (1.09907). A short-term range is likely between 1.08-1.10 with a base forming at the 1.0800 area.

Market positioning from the last COT/CFTC (week ended 30 March) report saw net speculative Euro long bets at their biggest since June 2018. Last week’s long Easter weekend saw no report and we look to this week for the latest statistics. Much of the Euro’s drop has been the result of long bets exiting their positions. We can assume that the core positions remain long Euro bets which suggests a weaker rather than a stronger Euro.

Immediate support can be found at 1.0840 followed by 1.0810. Immediate resistance lies at 1.0900 followed by 1.0930. Look for a likely range today between 1.0830 and 1.0930. Prefer to sell into Euro strength.