The Euro managed to hold above the 1.1300 level, closing at 1.1307 in New York. Overnight high traded was 1.13548 while the Euro bottomed out at 1.12549. Friday’s rally in risk markets and better-than-expected Italian and French Industrial Production data buoyed the shared currency. Wall Street stocks defied the growing rise in Covid-19 cases in the United States with record fatalities in several states. Most traders were focussed on positives, expecting more official policy support as well as favourable financial conditions.

This week sees the ECB’s policy meeting and rate announcement on Thursday (10.30 pm, Sydney time, 16 July). The ECB is expected to leave its interest rate and bond-buying program unchanged. ECB President Christine Lagarde earlier hinted at inaction while casting doubt that European Union leaders would decide on the EU recovery fund in their summit which begins on Friday.
Don’t forget that speculative long Euro bets from last week’s COT report are currently at 2-year highs.

EUR/USD has immediate support at 1.1280 followed by 1.1250. Immediate resistance can be found at 1.1330 followed by 1.1370 (July 9 high). Look for a likely range today of 1.1230-1.1330. Prefer to sell rallies. The longs are getting impatient.