EUR/USD – Further Advances Capped by Build in Spec Long Bets

The Euro was one of the currencies that advanced against the US Dollar, finishing with a gain of 0.42% to 1.1345 in New York. The shared currency benefited from the early rise in risk appetite which fizzled out as equities turned lower. Optimism continued to build on expectations that the EU-proposed recovery fund would be agreed upon by the European bloc. The continent is also weathering the second wave of coronavirus spikes better than the US and the rest of the world so far.

CNBC EUR USD Chart - 6M - 14 July 2020
CNBC EUR USD Chart – 6M – 14 July 2020

One of the two highlights of the Commitment of Traders/CFTC report from Saxo Bank for the week ended 7 July was a rise in net speculative Euro long bets. Speculators increased their net long Euro bets to +EUR 103,597 contracts from the previous week’s +EUR 98,955. Which is still hovering at highs not seen since early 2018. This will keep the Euro from any meaningful gains until this market positioning has a decent correction.

EUR/USD has immediate resistance at 1.1375 followed by 1.1400. Immediate support can be found at 1.1310 and 1.1280 followed by 1.1250. Look to sell rallies with a likely range today of 1.1270-1.1370.

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