The Euro finished as worst performing major currency, down 0.35% at the New York close to 1.0822, not far off its overnight and two-week low at 1.08033. EUR/USD opened yesterday at 1.0860. The shared currency has fallen in the last 5 trading days. FX was mostly muted yesterday with the focus on oil and asset markets. Today the currencies heat up with the release of Global Manufacturing and Services PMI’s. Euro area and Eurozone PMI’s are forecast to be lower, and if they come out better than forecast, it could provide a reprieve for the Euro. Any rebound looks to be limited. The big event is tomorrow’s European Council meeting amidst a lack of progress in talks leading into the event.
EUR/USD has immediate support at 1.0800 followed by 1.0750. Immediate resistance can be found at 1.0880 (overnight high 1.0885) and 1.0900. We highlighted this week that net speculative Euro long bets increased to the biggest levels not seen since 2018. Just as a reminder, net speculative Euro long bets rose to +EUR 86,617 contracts, up almost +EUR 7,000 contracts from the previous week. As the robot in the old TV series “Lost In Space” used to say to Will Smith.. “danger, danger..”
Look to sell rallies in a likely range today of 1.0785-1.0885.
