I have been following the EUCO meeting since it has started on Friday. Clearly, this is not Europe’s Hamilton moment, but this is a great telenovela!

PM X. Bettel has just announced he is leaving EUCO for Luxembourg to lead a government council on COVID-19. He is planning to come back to Brussels later tonight…

In other words, don’t expect any agreement to be reached in the coming hours.

The best-case scenario is a foul compromise in the night…It is already the longest EUCO meeting since Nice in December 2000…

I see at least three main points of disagreements:

• Over the rule of law (rift between East and West)
• Over volumes of the EU recovery plan and governance (rift between North and South)
• Over EU leadership (this meeting is also about the future balance of power in post-Brexit EU).

I acknowledge it is probably too early to jump to conclusions but I think it is safe to say that if we get a deal in the night or later on in July, the original proposal is likely to be watered down – which means that this is again a missed opportunity for the EU to create a powerful solidarity instrument based on debt mutualisation that would be macro-significant and constitutes a strategic move towards completing the monetary union. It also shows how deep is the EU fragmentation…

 

This is not what we have been dreaming of…

 

I will write a longer analysis tomorrow AM.

 

Have a nice Sunday.

 

Best regards