Forex Trading

Dollar, Stocks Rally, US Congress to Spend $8 billion to Fight Disease

Summary: US stocks and the Dollar rebounded after Congress agreed to an emergency spending bill of USD 8.3 billion to combat the spread of Covid-19. The Dollar weakened across the board after the US Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by 0.5% yesterday. Data released yesterday showed US ADP private payrolls gained 183,000 jobs in February beating forecasts of 170,000. The move by Congress, the data and the strong showing across key US states by Joe Biden in the contest to select a Democratic challenger to President Trump in the November 3 election all contributed to the Dollar’s advance. The Euro, one of the currencies to advance on the broad-based US Dollar weakness, retreated 0.34% to 1.1135 (1.1182). USD/JPY, which hit a low of 106.85 in Asian trade yesterday, climbed to 107.692 before settling to close at 107.37. Against the Canadian Loonie, the Dollar soared to 1.3431 from 1.3375 after the Bank of Canada cut it’s Overnight Rate by 0.5% to 1.25%, a move which was widely expected. USD/CAD finished in New York at 1.3400. The Australian Dollar extended its rally to 0.6615 from 0.6595. Against the trend, the British Pound climbed to 1.2870 (1.2800 yesterday) after incoming Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that more evidence was needed on the coronavirus before any policy decision is made.
Wall Street stocks rallied on the news of the US Congress agreement on an emergency funding bill. The DOW was up 34.3% to 26,945 (26,007). The S&P 500 rose 4.06% % to 3,111 (3,015). US Treasury yields hovered at the lows. The key 10-year rate held at 1.00% while the 2-year fell to 0.65% from 0.69% yesterday.
Euro area Services PMIs mostly matched forecasts. China’s Caixin Services PMI slumped to 26.5 in February from 51.8 the previous month. US Final Services PMI in February matched median expectations with a reading of 49.4, and January’s 49.4

US ADP Non Farm Employment Change - Forex Factory - 05 March 2020 (1)
US ADP Non Farm Employment Change – Forex Factory – 05 March 2020 (1)

On the Lookout: While asset markets and the US Dollar steadied following the US spending bill to combat the coronavirus, the disease continued to spread outside China. In the US mainland, Washington state confirmed 39 infected and 10 deaths from 27 and 9 yesterday. New cases reported saw 6 in Los Angeles and 4 near New York, two of the most populous US cities. More volatility lies ahead.
US ADP Private Payrolls and ISM Services PMI reports showed that the US economy remained on solid footing before the coronavirus. Economists expect the coronavirus to limit economic growth in the first half of 2020 to around 1%. (US economy grew 2.3% in 2019).
Today’s economic data releases are thin. Asia sees Australia’s Trade Balance. The US reports on its Challenger Job Cuts, Revised Non-Farm Productivity, Revised Unit Labour Costs, Factory Orders and Weekly Unemployment Claims.

Trading Perspective: The Dollar regained its footing after the Fed emergency rate cut yesterday. The Bank of Canada joined the Fed, slashing its Overnight Cash rate by 0.5%. Traders will look to see which other major central banks will follow the Federal Reserve and make emergency cuts. This should see the Dollar consolidate against the other majors within the recently established ranges. Trading will remain choppy and volatile.
US bond yields hovered near their lows, the 10-year at 1.0% while the 2-year dropped 4 basis points to 0.65%. Rival bond rates were a touch lower.

Happy trading all.

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