Kaspa closed at or above $0.05 on only two of 280 completed daily sessions in 2026 on Binance's USD-M perpetual, the later of them at $0.05144 on 6 January. At 06:49 UTC on 8 October 2026 that book last traded at $0.03980, down 5.148% over the rolling 24 hours. A kaspa price prediction pinned to a round nickel is describing a settlement this contract has managed twice all year.
The red day is a poor summary of the same candles. From the 10 July close of $0.02948 the ticker is up 35.0%, and from the 9 October 2025 close of $0.07390 it is down 46.1%. Spot symbols KASUSDT and KASUSDC both came back invalid, so the book here is the perpetual. About three minutes after the ticker, the index showed Gate.io at $0.03981, KuCoin at $0.03980, Bitget at $0.03978 and Bybit at $0.03980. Those four spot venues and the perpetual last sit on top of each other. No outside page was averaged in.
Prints from the book, not from a blended page
- Last price $0.03980, down 5.148% over the rolling 24 hours, with a high of $0.04220 and a low of $0.03929. Source: Binance USD-M KASUSDT 24-hour ticker, 8 October 2026, 06:49 UTC.
- Two of 280 completed 2026 daily closes finished at or above $0.05. The later close was $0.05144 on 6 January. Source: Binance USD-M daily candles, 1 January through 7 October 2026.
- The contract's daily high is $0.20825 on 31 July 2024. The 8 October last is 80.9% below that print. Source: Binance USD-M daily candles since listing.
- The lowest daily close since the perpetual listed on 17 November 2023 is $0.02527 on 18 August 2026. The last price is 57.5% above it. Source: Binance USD-M daily candles.
- Open interest was 70,248,722 KAS, about $2.80 million at the last price, against $5.43 million of quote turnover in the same 24-hour window. Source: Binance USD-M open interest and 24-hour ticker, 8 October 2026.
- Circulating supply was 27,744,330,316.54 KAS, 96.66% of the 28,704,035,605 KAS maximum on the same feed. Block reward was 2.06017223 KAS. Source: api.kaspa.org coinsupply and block-reward reads, 8 October 2026, 06:57 UTC.
- Reported hashrate was 343,228 TH/s. The server says that calculation uses a blocks-per-second setting whose default is 10. Source: api.kaspa.org hashrate endpoint, 8 October 2026, 06:57 UTC.
Six tags at five cents, two settlements
Completed sessions are the 280 daily candles from 1 January through 7 October 2026. The 8 October candle was still forming, so it stays out of that count. The midpoint of the two central closes is $0.031945, and the last price sits 24.6% above it.
Six of those sessions traded at or above $0.05. Only two closed there.
On 4 January the high was $0.05234 and the close was $0.04946. The 5 January close was $0.05088. On 6 January the high was $0.05327, the best intraday print of 2026, and the close was $0.05144. On 7 January the high was $0.05154 and the close was $0.04888. The other two tags were 26 September, high $0.05027 and close $0.04783, and 27 September, high $0.05014 and close $0.04698.
The nickel did not stick.
The net change from the 1 January open of $0.04290 to the 8 October last is only a 7.2% decline, and that net hides the round trip. The 6 February low was $0.02494. The 6 August low was $0.02498. The 18 August close of $0.02527 is the lowest daily close since this perpetual listed on 17 November 2023. From that close to the 26 September high is a 98.9% advance. From the 1 September close of $0.02750 to the same high is 82.8%. By 30 September the close was $0.04349, by 7 October it was $0.04053, and the 8 October ticker at $0.03980 is 20.8% under the September high.
211 of the 280 completed closes finished under $0.036. That is 75.4% of the year. A year-end path near $0.036 is a return to a level that already sat above three quarters of this year's settlements. The retest of the February and August lows, near $0.025, is a deeper and separate path.
Turnover on the days that set those marks was uneven. The 6 January high did about $14.7 million of quote volume. The 6 February low did about $15.5 million. The 6 August retest did about $2.48 million. The 26 September spike did about $22.5 million, the heaviest of the set. The spike was the busy day. The August low was a drift.
| Date | What it was | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2024 | $0.20825 high, $0.20552 close | High of the USD-M daily series |
| 6 Jan 2026 | $0.05327 high, $0.05144 close | 2026 intraday high, and the later of two closes at or above $0.05 |
| 6 Feb 2026 | $0.02494 low, $0.03198 close | First test of the quarter-cent zone |
| 18 Aug 2026 | $0.02527 close | Lowest daily close since the 17 Nov 2023 listing |
| 26 Sep 2026 | $0.05027 high, $0.04783 close | Spike high. Tagged $0.05, settled under it |
| 8 Oct 2026, 06:49 UTC | $0.03980 last | Rolling 24-hour ticker, day not settled |
The chart is daily closes from 9 October 2025 through the 8 October 2026 session print. Closes hide the wick discussed below. Forward lines are names only, bull $0.0550, base $0.0360 and bear $0.0250, drawn to 31 December 2026.
Same week, different coin: Numeraire's 7 October session on this desk was a rise. A down day in KAS was not the whole tape, and that move is not an input here.
Open interest against a real air pocket
Open interest at the ticker was 70,248,722 KAS, about $2,795,899 at $0.03980. Rolling 24-hour quote turnover was $5,426,749 across 76,979 trades and 134,827,719 KAS, about 1.9 times the open interest. The average trade was near 1,751 KAS, about $70. The last sat close to the 24-hour low of $0.03929, not the high of $0.04220. The weighted average was $0.04025.
A thin book can travel.
At 00:00 UTC on 9 September, open interest was 101,864,600 KAS, worth $3,611,100. At 00:00 UTC on 8 October it was 71,266,786 KAS, worth $2,888,680. Coins in open interest fell about 30%, and notional fell about 20%. From the 8 September close of $0.03546 to the 8 October ticker, price rose 12.2%. Price up, positioning down: exposure was leaving while the September spike was given back.
The latest funding rate was 0.005%, with the next timestamp at 08:00 UTC on 8 October. Mark price was $0.039803 and the index was $0.0398025, so the perpetual was not trading away from the spot composite. That index is an equal-weight blend of Gate.io, KuCoin, Bitget and Bybit. Binance spot still has no KAS market. KASUSDT and KASUSDC both returned an invalid symbol that morning.
On 10 October 2025 the daily candle opened at $0.07389, wicked to $0.00904, and closed at $0.05483. The 21:00 UTC hour opened at $0.06271, closed at $0.05063, and traded 551.5 million KAS. The 21:21 minute hit $0.00904, closed at $0.00966, and recorded 1,351 trades in 18.4 million KAS. Later minutes that hour closed at $0.01389, $0.02051 and $0.02771. The day still settled at $0.05483.
That was a traded air pocket, not a settlement, and it is not the bear case. It is absent from the chart because the line is closes. With a couple of million dollars of open interest, a trip from $0.040 toward $0.025 does not need a new story about the chain. It needs offers that find no bid. February and August show where those trips have stopped. They do not show that the next one must stop in the same place.
Fetch.ai's 5 October note recorded a rise on a different coin. It is context for the week, not an input to these levels.
Supply, a November reward step, and two recorded lines
Price is the book. Issuance is the slow variable next to it, not a substitute for the candle.
At 06:57 UTC on 8 October, api.kaspa.org reported circulating supply of 27,744,330,316.54 KAS. The field is in sompi. The server defines 100,000,000 sompi per KAS and a mainnet maximum of 28,704,035,605 KAS, which matches the maxSupply on that read. Circulating supply is 96.66% of the maximum. Times the Binance last of $0.03980, the product is about $1.104 billion. That is arithmetic from those two sources, not a vendor market-cap feed. A market-cap route on the same API pulls its price from elsewhere, and it was not used.
The block-reward endpoint, which describes its figure as KAS per block, returned 2.06017223. The halving endpoint, reading the next value from the same calculation, returned 1.94454365 and dated the step to 4 November 2026 at 13:57:01 UTC. That is 5.6% below the current reward. The date uses the server's blocks-per-second constant. In the public constants that value defaults to 10, and the same setting feeds the hashrate math.
Two timed reads of block count that morning show why one window is a bad headline. From 06:57:00 to 06:57:12 UTC, block count rose by 173 in 12.31 seconds, about 14.1 a second. From 06:57:49 to 06:58:09 UTC, it rose by 165 in 20.45 seconds, about 8.1 a second. Combined, 338 blocks in 32.76 seconds, about 10.3 a second, bouncing around the default of 10. The hashrate print of 343,228 TH/s inherits that setting. It is an endpoint figure, not a machine count, and it does not move the December levels.
Yonatan Sompolinsky, described by his interviewer as co-author of the DAGKnight work with Michael Sutton, is quoted in an 11 August 2026 write-up of a Bitcoin Takeover conversation: "For the record, I'm very bearish on rollups." The episode marks that line at 10 minutes and 18 seconds. A design opinion about rollups does not put a bid under $0.055 or pull one out from under $0.036.
Vlad Costea, host of Bitcoin Takeover, wrote in the same piece that his answer to what Kaspa needs was "wallet support, more than exchange listings." Binance spot still does not list the coin, and the perpetual does. That lines up with his ranking only as a juxtaposition. He was not calling the symbol list. The tradable Binance book is the one used here.
One more 5.6% cut in the block reward, if the endpoint's clock holds, changes the pace of new coins. It does not draw a line on the perpetual. This book has already traded from a $0.20825 high to a $0.02527 closing low while issuance continued.
Why the July 2024 high is not the bull case
The daily high on this contract is $0.20825, set on 31 July 2024, with that session closing at $0.20552 and the next session at $0.20194. From the high to the 8 October 2026 last is an 80.9% decline. Aiming a December path at $0.20 would mean reclaiming, in about twelve weeks, a level this contract has not closed near since the summer of 2024. The bull case here is $0.055, about 3.2% above the 6 January 2026 high of $0.05327. That is a clearance of this year's high, not a return to the contract's high.
The high is a history lesson, not a target.
RelatedFetch.ai (FET) Rises 14.67% to $0.2556 in 24 Hours
The first daily candle, 17 November 2023, opened at $0.13580 and closed at $0.13757. The perpetual was born above thirteen cents. This year's 280 closes do not live there. They live mostly under $0.036, with a January fling and a September fling that, apart from two January settlements, failed to hold $0.05.
A separate large-cap proof-of-work note on this site, the Bitcoin price prediction, is not an input. Kaspa's perpetual does not inherit those levels. The shared rule is narrower: name the book, date the print, and measure from a high the book contains. A third-party high of $0.2074 does not match this contract. The series high here is $0.20825, so the other figure was dropped.
Kaspa price prediction to 31 December 2026
The base case into 31 December 2026 is $0.036, about 9.5% under the $0.03980 last. It is not a collapse. 211 of 280 completed closes this year finished under that price, so the base is a drift back toward the top of the band where the year actually traded, after a spike that has already started to fade. The 26 September high was $0.05027. The 30 September close was $0.04349, the 7 October close was $0.04053, and the 8 October ticker continued the giveback. The base says that giveback has further to go, then stops.
The bull case is $0.055. It sits above the 26 September high and above the 6 January high of $0.05327. Four of the six sessions that traded at or above $0.05 this year closed back underneath, so $0.055 is the path that retires the fade, not the path the closes make likely. A completed daily close above $0.05027 changes the view and is the invalidation on the bearish bias. Above that close, the January high is the next reference.
The bear case is $0.025, the round number on the 6 February low of $0.02494 and the 6 August low of $0.02498, just under the lowest daily close on this contract, $0.02527 on 18 August. Getting there by year end means giving back the advance off that August close. Thinner open interest makes a fast trip more plausible than it would be in a deep book. It stays the tail, not the base, unless a completed daily close loses the 16 September low of $0.03168. The 10 October 2025 print at $0.00904 stays out. That day closed at $0.05483.
Bias is bearish because the base is below the live last. Conviction is 2 out of 5. The 90-day change is still up 35.0%, the index matches four spot venues, and the latest funding rate was 0.005%. A daily settlement under $0.03168, with open interest still falling, would add weight to the bear case. A daily settlement above $0.05027 would flip the bias.
Questions around the path to December
What is the Kaspa price prediction for the end of 2026?
The base is $0.036, the bull is $0.055 and the bear is $0.025, on the Binance USD-M perpetual, with a horizon of 31 December 2026. The base sits about 9.5% under the 8 October last of $0.03980, which is why the bias is bearish. Conviction is 2 because the move from the 10 July close is still up 35.0%. None of the three numbers is an instruction.
Why use a perpetual if Binance spot has no KAS market?
Spot KASUSDT and KASUSDC both returned an invalid symbol on 8 October 2026. The USD-M perpetual is the Binance book that trades. About three minutes after the 06:49 UTC ticker, the index matched Gate.io, KuCoin, Bitget and Bybit between $0.03978 and $0.03981. The last was not a futures-only print. This note uses the perpetual last of $0.03980 rather than an average of web pages.
Can Kaspa reach the July 2024 high by year end?
The high on this contract is $0.20825 on 31 July 2024. The 8 October last is 80.9% below it. A move back to that high by 31 December would be a different forecast from the one here. The bull case is $0.055, a little above the 6 January 2026 high of $0.05327. The 2024 high is history on this book, not a December level.
Was the $0.009 print a real low?
On 10 October 2025 the USD-M daily candle wicked to $0.00904 and closed at $0.05483. The 21:21 UTC minute traded 18.4 million KAS across 1,351 trades and closed at $0.00966. It was a traded air pocket on the perpetual, followed within minutes by a climb back through two cents. It is not a settled daily close, and it is not the bear case.
What would change this view before December?
A completed daily close above $0.05027, the 26 September 2026 high, would retire the bearish base and shift weight to the $0.055 bull. A completed daily close under $0.03168, the 16 September low, would give the $0.025 retest more weight. Funding at 0.005% and the open-interest decline can continue without either of those closes. The closes are the test.
Does the November reward cut set the price?
The halving endpoint dated the next step to 4 November 2026 at 13:57 UTC and showed a next amount of 1.94454365 KAS, against a current block reward of 2.06017223 KAS per block. That is about 5.6% less issuance per block. It is a supply detail. It is not a line on the chart. This contract has already traded from $0.20825 to a $0.02527 closing low while new coins were still being issued.
This is analysis, not a recommendation. Capital is at risk. The levels are scenarios drawn from one exchange's perpetual candles, and they can be wrong. The 8 October daily candle had not settled when the last price was taken. A past wick, including the October 2025 air pocket, is not a forecast.