Numeraire (NMR) last traded at $16.59 on Binance's NMRUSDT market at 06:52 UTC on 7 October 2026. In the 24 hours ending at that print, the pair rose 38.7% from an open of $11.96, reached a high of $18.99 and a low of $11.80, and turned over $43.39 million across 304,554 trades. Price at the print sat 12.6% under that high. The book that produced the high was not the book of the prior hour.
At 11:35 UTC on 6 October the one-minute close was still $12.01, on three trades. Upbit's notice adding NMR to the KRW and USDT markets is timestamped 11:36:26 UTC, and the Binance candle for that minute closed at $15.00. The $18.99 high printed three minutes later, before Upbit's KRW market showed a one-minute candle. Numerai's blog index, opened on the morning of 7 October, had no item dated after 1 September 2026. The tape lines up with the exchange notice, not with a new company release.
Key facts
- Binance NMRUSDT last price $16.59 at 06:52 UTC on 7 October 2026, up 38.7% from the $11.96 open of the trailing 24 hours. High $18.99, low $11.80. Source: Binance 24-hour ticker, retrieved 7 October 2026.
- Quote turnover on that Binance window was $43.39 million, on 2.61 million NMR and 304,554 trades. Source: Binance 24-hour ticker, 7 October 2026.
- Upbit notice 6642, published 20:36:26 KST on 6 October 2026 (11:36:26 UTC), adds Numeraire to the KRW and USDT markets on Ethereum, with trading support scheduled for 20:45 KST. The BTC-market reference in the notice is 0.00013977 BTC, stated as 16,213 KRW and 12.0007 USDT. Source: Upbit notice, opened 7 October 2026.
- Upbit KRW-NMR last was 22,640 won at 06:57 UTC on 7 October 2026, with 126.37 billion won of 24-hour turnover and 5.42 million NMR traded. USDT-NMR showed about 470 USDT of turnover. Source: Upbit tickers, 7 October 2026.
- From 2 March through 31 August 2026 the highest daily high on Binance NMRUSDT was $10.60, on 17 May. The 6 October high was $18.99. Source: Binance daily klines, retrieved 7 October 2026.
- Numerai's 26 August 2025 post said JPMorgan Asset Management had secured $500 million in capacity. The 15 July 2026 note put assets at about $700 million. Source: Numerai blog, pages opened 7 October 2026.
A quiet book, then one minute
From April through late September the close lived mostly between $8 and $10. On 28 September the high was $15.50 and the close was $14.14, with $18.09 million of quote turnover. On 30 September the close was $11.29, 20.2% under the 28 September close. The token had already given a spike back.
The headline session is the second spike. On the completed UTC day of 6 October, NMRUSDT opened at $12.10, printed the $18.99 high, closed at $16.10, and turned over $32.31 million in 238,044 trades. The 7 October candle was still forming at the pull used for the chart. Its close then was $16.58, one cent under the ticker last. That unfinished bar is the final point.
| Binance NMRUSDT window | Open | High | Close or last | Quote turnover | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours to 06:52 UTC, 7 Oct 2026 | $11.96 | $18.99 | $16.59 last | $43.39 million | 304,554 |
| UTC day, 6 Oct 2026 | $12.10 | $18.99 | $16.10 close | $32.31 million | 238,044 |
| UTC day, 28 Sep 2026 | $10.34 | $15.50 | $14.14 close | $18.09 million | 145,407 |
| UTC day, 5 Oct 2026 | $11.77 | $12.17 | $12.12 close | $1.39 million | 10,854 |
| UTC day, 17 Sep 2026 | $8.91 | $8.96 | $8.92 close | $92,106 | 1,543 |
Every row is Binance, retrieved 7 October 2026. The first is the 24-hour ticker. The rest are daily klines. A mid-September day did $92,106. The day before the notice did $1.39 million. The rolling $43.39 million exceeds the UTC day because it includes the overnight trade into 7 October.
From 11:20 to 11:35 UTC on 6 October, one-minute quote turnover was hundreds of dollars, or zero. The 11:36 candle opened at $12.01, high $15.05, low $11.99, close $15.00, with $1.65 million of quote turnover and 14,027 trades. The 11:39 candle made the $18.99 high. By 11:45, the minute Upbit had scheduled, Binance was already near $16.70.
Uniswap's token rose hard and then gave back a slice in another session. Here, $18.99 to $16.59 is a 12.6% giveback, and the 30 September close was 20.2% under 28 September. Neither number is a forecast. Bitcoin did not join in: Binance BTCUSDT went from $85,518.36 at 06:00 UTC on 6 October to $84,262.09 a day later, about 1.5% lower.
What the Upbit notice commits to
The page is notice 6642, still at upbit.com/service_center/notice?id=6642 when opened on 7 October. The Korean title adds Numeraire to the KRW and USDT markets. The table names Ethereum as the network and 20:45 KST on 6 October as the scheduled start.
Deposits and withdrawals run only on that network. If the market does not secure enough liquidity after deposits open, the start can be postponed. The notice does not define that level in won or in coins.
The order limits are concrete. For about five minutes after support begins, bids are limited, and offers priced 10% or more below the previous close are limited. For about two hours, only limit orders are accepted. The reference is the Upbit BTC-market quote, so the notice itself treats a BTC pair as already listed. The previous close it prints is 0.00013977 BTC, written in the same cell as 16,213 KRW and 12.0007 USDT. That USDT figure sits within a cent of Binance's $12.01 close at 11:35 UTC.
Public one-minute candles for KRW-NMR are empty before 11:50 UTC. The first bar opened at 27,630 won, 70.4% above the 16,213 won reference. At the notice's cross, 16,213 won equals 12.0007 USDT, so that open is about $20.45. Binance in the same minute closed at $17.80. The notice warns that gaps between domestic and overseas venues persist. A gap is not, by itself, an arbitrage.
The first KRW candle is 11:50 UTC, five minutes after the scheduled 20:45 KST start, which matches the five-minute bid limit and does not prove a delay. Upbit names contract 0x1776e1F26f98b1A5dF9cD347953a26dd3Cb46671 and sets a per-withdrawal cap equal to 100 million won for 20 business days. That is listing plumbing, not a treasury event.
Sui's session when the DeepBook app went live was another case of a new trading interface and a price in the same story. Sequence differs here. Binance repriced in the minute the notice went up. The KRW candles start after the dollar high.
The won market took the turnover
By the morning of 7 October the dollar venues clustered near $16.60. They did not share the turnover.
| Venue and pair | Time, UTC | 24-hour turnover, venue's own field | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Binance NMRUSDT | $16.59 | 06:52, 7 Oct | $43.39 million quote |
| Coinbase NMR-USD | $16.62 | 06:56:19, 7 Oct | 921,952 NMR |
| Kraken NMRUSD | $16.70 | 07:00:03, 7 Oct | 43,877 NMR, 4,726 trades |
| Upbit KRW-NMR | 22,640 KRW | 06:57:25, 7 Oct | 126.37 billion KRW |
| Upbit USDT-NMR | 21 USDT | last trade 21:36, 6 Oct | about 470 USDT |
| Upbit BTC-NMR | 0.00019586 BTC | 06:47:36, 7 Oct | 31.67 BTC |
Coinbase's stats feed reported an open of 12, a high of 18.61 and a last of 16.60. No percentage is taken from that integer open. Marked at $16.62, 921,952 NMR is about $15.3 million, a desk product, not a Coinbase quote field. Kraken's 24-hour average was $16.67, so 43,877 NMR is about $0.73 million.
Upbit's KRW change of 3.7% is from a previous close of 21,830 won, already a post-listing price, not the 16,213 won in the notice. The 126.37 billion won of turnover does include the open. At the notice's cross, about 1,351 won per USDT, that is about $93.5 million. The cross is the 6 October reference, not a live rate at 06:57 on the 7th. On that cross, 22,640 won is about $16.76, near Binance, which is a morning-after convergence. The opening gap was in the 11:50 candles.
USDT-NMR's last of 21, on about 22 coins, is not a second opinion on $16.59. The BTC pair's 52-week low date is 10 October 2025. Its 31.67 BTC of turnover is about $2.67 million marked at the $84,262 BTCUSDT close above, and about 135,873 NMR. Older, and not the event.
The company record stops in September
Numerai did not publish this listing. Upbit's notice describes the tournament, Signals and Crypto, and points at numer.ai. There is no new asset figure in that blurb.
On the blog index opened 7 October 2026, the newest item is the monthly note of 1 September. Older featured cards for NumerCon and the Series C sit above it. Nothing there is dated 6 or 7 October.
The capacity line is from 26 August 2025. Numerai wrote that JPMorgan Asset Management had invested and secured $500 million in capacity, that assets had grown from $60 million to $450 million over three years, and that in 2024 the fund then called Numerai One delivered a 25.45% net return with one down month. The 2.75 Sharpe in that post is net of fees with a zero risk-free rate, on a 1% fee and a 20% incentive fee. Past performance, the post says, is not a guarantee. The photograph is JPMorgan Chase's headquarters at 270 Park Avenue. The post names the asset-management arm. It does not put the decision in that building, and the 2025 line is not cash that moved on 6 October 2026.
On 20 November 2025 Numerai said it had raised $30 million at a $500 million valuation, led by university endowments, with Union Square Ventures, Shine Capital and Paul Tudor Jones participating. The capacity phrase there is "up to $500 million." Assets had gone from about $60 million to $550 million. August said the capacity was secured. November said "up to." Neither post says how much has been drawn.
Richard Craib, founder and chief executive, explained the rename in the 17 February 2026 NumerCon post. "It's what we've built our track record on, but there were so many experiments and now Numerai One has become mature and so we want to consecrate that with a name change to Numerai Sigil." The 2024 return belongs to the fund that post renamed Sigil.
Michael Phillips, chief data officer, is in the same post on a dataset, not on this week's price. "...for the first time we are going to reveal how we built the faith features. They were generated with something called the Numerai Predictive LLM." A token can reprice while the issuer's news goes quiet, which is also what happened when Injective rose during a vote on code the project had stopped publishing.
The latest operating numbers are in the 15 July 2026 buyback note. An extra $1.2 million of NMR had already been purchased, through Coinbase Institutional, near the bid. The total since July 2025 was $3.2 million, including $1 million in February 2026. More than 1.1 million NMR was staked. Assets were about $700 million, up from about $560 million at the end of 2025, with more than $1 billion a month traded across 30 markets. The cap was 11 million tokens, about 3.1 million of them in the treasury.
Those figures do not add to the capacity line. Assets of $450 million in August 2025 plus a fully drawn $500 million would be $950 million. July 2026 says about $700 million. The pages opened here never say how much capacity has been called.
The 1 September note is the last company word before this tape. It records a Signals scoring change, atomic staking, an August payout of $356,930 worth of NMR, and a New York community day on 10 October. No exchange listing appears. The September price spike can stand as what the klines show: a large day that faded.
A higher coin price is not new assets
NMR is the stake. The July note says contributors lock it on models, earn it when predictions hold up, and lose it when they do not. The stake-weighted meta model turns those calls into a signal for the fund. A higher spot price changes the dollar value of a given stake. It does not change the token count, the 11 million cap, or the assets in the fund.
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The repurchase program is $3.2 million over a year, run slowly so it would not shove the market. Binance alone turned over $43.39 million in the headline window. That program is not the cause of a minute that did $1.65 million. About 3.1 million NMR in the treasury, marked at $16.59, is about $51 million. Numerai did not publish that dollar mark. A won listing does not refill the treasury.
What this changes
The open argument on the morning of 7 October was whether a listing document existed. It does. Upbit's notice is minute-stamped to the Binance candle that left $12.01, the dollar high printed before the KRW candles, and the won market carried the new turnover. The USDT addition is real and, on the ticker, negligible.
The notice does not update assets, draw the JPMorgan capacity, or touch the 11 million cap. Filing the session under that bank uses an August 2025 sentence to explain an October 2026 minute. The capacity was already public while daily highs stayed under $10.60 from March through August. If that line were enough, the chart would not be flat until late September.
The reading changes if Numerai publishes how much capacity has been called, or an asset total newer than about $700 million. It changes if KRW turnover sinks toward the few million dollars a day Binance did from 1 to 5 October. It changes if price trades back near the $12.01 print from 11:35 UTC on 6 October, because the repricing would have been given back. That price is not an objective. This article sets no target.
Volatility of this size changes the stake in practice. The tournament still pays and burns in NMR. The dollar value of that stake moved 38.7% in a day. That is the tape, not a new rule.
Questions
Did Upbit list Numeraire on 6 October 2026?
Yes, for two markets. Notice 6642, published at 20:36:26 KST, adds NMR to the KRW and USDT markets on Ethereum, with trading support scheduled for 20:45 KST. The BTC pair was already the collar reference in that notice, and its 52-week low date on Upbit's ticker is 10 October 2025. The new turnover showed up in won, not in the new USDT book.
How large was the Binance move in the headline window?
From 06:52 UTC on 6 October to 06:52 UTC on 7 October, NMRUSDT rose from an open of $11.96 to a last of $16.59, which is 38.7%. The high was $18.99 and the low was $11.80. Quote turnover was $43.39 million on 304,554 trades. Most of the rise happened in the minutes after 11:36 UTC on 6 October, not as a steady climb across the full day.
Is the JPMorgan figure new?
No. Numerai's post of 26 August 2025 said JPMorgan Asset Management had invested and secured $500 million in capacity. A 20 November 2025 post said "up to $500 million." The July 2026 asset figure was about $700 million, which is not $450 million plus a fully drawn $500 million. The company has not said, in the pages opened for this article, how much capacity has been called.
Why was Upbit's USDT market so quiet?
The notice added KRW and USDT together. The tickers did not. As of the morning of 7 October, USDT-NMR had about 470 USDT of 24-hour turnover and a last trade of 21 USDT at 21:36 UTC the night before, on about 22 NMR. KRW-NMR had 126.37 billion won of turnover. The listing that mattered for volume was the won market.
Did Numerai announce anything on 6 or 7 October?
Not on the blog index opened for this article. The latest post there is the monthly note of 1 September 2026, which covers a Signals scoring change, atomic staking, an August payout of $356,930 worth of NMR, and a New York community event on 10 October. It does not mention Upbit. The buyback figures in circulation are from 15 July 2026.
Does a higher NMR price raise the hedge fund's assets?
Not on any page Numerai has published. Assets of about $700 million are a July 2026 company figure for the fund. The token price marks the treasury and the stake in dollars, and those marks move with the tape. A won listing does not add assets under management unless the firm says capital came in. It has not said that this week.
This is analysis, not a recommendation. Prices of digital assets move sharply, and capital committed to them is at risk. Figures are tied to the sources and timestamps named above. A later tick on a rolling 24-hour ticker is a different window, not a correction of this one.