The Australian Dollar plunged to 0.62842 overnight low after opening up bid in Asia yesterday at 0.6442, failing to break through 0.6450. It was the proverbial up the stairs, down the elevator for the Aussie Batter. AUD/USD recovered in late New York to trade above 0.63 cents to 0.6320. While much of the Aussie Dollar’s climb was due to an overall weaker US Dollar, the weakness in Emerging Market currencies couldn’t be ignored. This also contributed to the 1.85% slump in the Battler.
The spotlight is on today’s Australian Employment report. The economy is expected to have lost from between 33,000 to 40,000 jobs in March (up to 19 March). February saw 26,700 jobs created. A loss of over 40,000 jobs will see the Aussie test 0.6200/20 first up. An employment contraction of less than 30,000 could see 0.6400 first up. US data releases later today will also impact risk assets, currencies and the Aussie.
AUD/USD has immediate support at 0.6280 and 0.6250. Strong support lies at the 0.6200/20 level. Immediate resistance can be found at 0.6370, 0.6400 and 0.6450. Look for a highly volatile trade between 0.6250-0.6380 first up. Am neutral at current levels, look to trade the range. Be prepared to go to either extremes and watch the EM and Asian currencies.
