AUD/USD – Mildly Higher, Pivot at 0.6400, Spotlight on Retail Sales

The Australian Dollar continued its outperformance after the RBA kept its cash rate target unchanged and did not signal an immediate need for additional easing. The RBA releases its official economic forecast on Friday. The Aussie finished with modest gains to 0.6435 from 0.6423 yesterday. Overnight the AUD/USD pair traded in a 0.64168 to 0.64759 range. The Battler held above its pivot point between 0.6387 and 0.6400.

AUDUSD - Royal Financial Trading H1 Chart - 06 May 2020
AUDUSD – Royal Financial Trading H1 Chart – 06 May 2020

AUD/USD has immediate resistance today at 0.6450 followed by 0.6480 and 0.6500. Immediate support can be found at 0.6420 followed by 0.6400 and 0.6385.
Today the spotlight is on Australia’s March Retail Sales, which are expected to remain at 8.2%, unchanged from the previous 8.2%. Sales could have increased in anticipation of the lockdown then. Any upside surprises should be limited to 0.6500 cents.

Yesterday the Australian Business Insider reported an ABS report suggested that nearly 1 million Australians lost their job between 14 March to 18 April. The RBA expects the Unemployment Rate to peak at 10% in the coming months. This will prevent any sustained Aussie gains. For today look for a likely range trade between 0.6350-0.6500. Be prepared to trade either extreme.

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