The Australian Dollar dipped to 0.6337 in late New York from yesterday’s opening at 0.6365 on the drop in risk sentiment following the oil price plunge. The big event today is the release of the RBA’s latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (11.30 am Sydney). RBA Governor Philip Lowe speaks at the Australian Central Bank’s headquarters in Sydney with an economic and financial update.
Meantime, the latest Commitment of Traders/CFTC report saw a mild increase in net speculative AUD short bets by -AUD 156 contracts to total -AUD 35,554 (week ended 14 April). All this says to this writer, as he puts his trading cap on, is that the Aussie short bets have yet to see a decent clean-out. Which is supportive of the Battler.
On the day, AUD/USD has immediate support at 0.6330 and 0.6300. This is followed by 0.6270. AUD/USD hit its lows in late New York trade following the collapse in the WTI Oil Futures contract. Immediate resistance lies at 0.6370 followed by 0.6400 and then 0.6440. While trading has been subdued, or less volatile of late, I don’t expect it to stay this way. It’s too soon for volatility to ease and the current conditions should see a pick-up again. Look to buy dips in a likely range today of 0.6285-0.6425.