The Australian Dollar traded in a relatively tight range between 0.65240 (overnight high) and 0.64384 (low) before settling to close at 0.6455 in New York. The Aussie Battler was depressed by the overall stronger Greenback and the weak performance by its smaller cousin, the Kiwi. The AUD/NZD cross was up 1.17% to 1.0772 (1.0648) following the RBNZ’s dovish bent in contrast to the RBA’s more neutral stance.
Today’s April Employment report could be key for the Australian Dollar. Expectations are for a median fall of -575,000 Employment Change from March’s gain of +5,900. There could be more focus on the Unemployment rate which is forecast to climb to 8.3% from 5.2%. A fall of more than -575,000, around -600,000 or more will see the Aussie sold off. An Unemployment rate of 8.5% or larger will also see the Aussie slump. On the topside a report of less than -500,000 jobs lost could see higher levels tested.
AUD/USD has immediate resistance at 0.6480 followed by 0.6530 and 0.6560. The 0.66 cent strong resistance level should hold. Immediate support can be found at 0.6430 followed by 0.6400 and 0.6370. We reported that speculative Aussie shorts were trimmed to -AUD 33,455 from -AUD 37,741. The short Aussie bets should be a support around the 0.6350 level. Look for some fireworks in the Aussie Battler today, with a likely range of 0.6380-0.6540. Trade the range shag on this one.